Portfolio Updates

The sharp oil supply shock created by the conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and rising uncertainty have trimmed roughly 30 basis points from global growth expectations compared to prior to the conflict. In addition, the closure has blocked roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade with nitrogen and phosphate supply the […]

The Middle East conflict that erupted at the end of February saw an immediate reaction from asset prices in March. Oil prices climbed, the dollar rallied, and yields softened. Gold bounced, up almost 5% across the first two trading sessions. Historically gold has responded positively when oil prices rise in response to a demand surge […]

The United States is reliant on global capital markets to fund its budget deficits and relies on the premise that the U.S. is a predictable and reliable steward of the world’s financial system. U.S. efforts to rewrite the rules of international trade, to pressure allies, and to treat economic relationships as instruments of coercion all […]

Optimism surrounding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China and anticipation of the Fed’s recent rate cut propelled the U.S. stock market through the month, while Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks dampened the run. On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed a bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The 43-day […]

The U.S. President’s push to redesign the global economic order in favor of the U.S. is shaking a foundation of post-World War II supremacy: the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. That dominance helps the U.S. to run gaping budget deficits and enables U.S. consumers to spend more than they make—all funded by overseas […]

Changes in U.S. tariff policy have been dramatic and frequent. The U.S. will likely feel the greatest weight of the shock as the tariff costs begin to depress corporate earnings and raise consumer prices. U.S. data reflecting tariff impact has been unreliable as average tariff rate calculations have used trade flow data from the prior […]

Earlier than expected U.S. trade agreements with China and the U.K. are trimming downside economic growth risks although the average U.S. tariff rate at above 13% remains the highest since the 1930s. Falling demand for the US dollar, stemming from geopolitical tensions, lack of trust in the US government’s ability to borrow, falling demand for […]

For decades, Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia have trusted America’s “superpower stack”—defence treaties, trade deals, nuclear weapons, the dollar banking system—because it is mutually beneficial. The Trump overhaul of the global economy with sweeping tariffs has led to concern over inflation and growth. Now, global consumer spending has slowed outside of China due to the […]

In delivering the first international speech of his second mandate by video from the White House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, United States President Donald Trump reiterated his tariff threats against Canada and the European Union while also warning other countries of potential tariffs if products are made outside of the U.S.1 The President […]

Trump’s re-election on November 5th poses a complex scenario for the U.S. and global markets. The prospect of an escalation of trade wars is likely to depress corporate investment while lowering real household disposable income, as tariffs are passed on to the consumer in the form of rising prices.  It is anticipated that fiscal spending […]

The world is changing rapidly and in ways that can be hard to predict. The frequency of unexpected political and economic shocks has accelerated. Heightened geopolitical risks favour assets that are considered safe havens such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, Treasuries, and gold. The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. In September we […]

The FOMC met on June 11th, holding interest rates unchanged and maintaining the 2024 outlook of a 4.0% unemployment rate while expecting inflation to decline to 2.6% at year-end 2024 and to be 2.3% at year-end 2025. The U.S. market has continued to support a delaying Fed, as the economy and profits continue to grow, […]