Portfolio Updates

The recent inflation surge is generating two challenges to the global expansion. The immediate one comes from a squeeze in household purchasing power, concentrated in Europe and low-income commodity importing nations. If growth stalls in the second half of the year, it will likely have negative repercussions for both growth and inflation. If growth proves […]

Geopolitical escalation in February has materially increased the risk of further aggravating the energy and commodity crisis developing over the past 2 years. After weeks of rising tensions, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. The U.S., in cooperation with its Western allies, has responded by imposing sanctions against Russia, prompting significant […]

The demand recovery following 2020’s historic pandemic recession has been concentrated in goods and has pushed supply chains to their limits, extending delivery times to records and boosting prices and volatility in growth and inflation. Supply shortages are raising current inflation, while secular forces that alter the balance of supply and demand and sustain high […]

Market volatility returned in September as China’s Evergrande debt crisis, the global prospect for higher taxes, U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty, and upcoming tapering by the Federal Reserve elevated risk. With these events considered, our outlook continues to expect the global recovery to continue. In September we maintained our twelve-month forward forecast of Growth (U.S. GDP […]

The COVID-19 pandemic appears to be less dramatic and lethal than some historic plagues and vaccinations will limit impact. Unfortunately, after substantial progress, the world faces a new enemy in the Delta variant. This highly contagious form of the virus devastated the subcontinent in spring and has now spread to almost 100 countries including the […]

The macroeconomic environment was a key focus in May. Massive fiscal support has been the glue that has held the economy together but the re-opening contribution to growth is for the most part completed. The question of whether the change in consumer prices is transitory or a regime shift will determine the sustainability of economic […]

The tug-of-war between the virus and the global immunization effort intensified in March. The focus now will be on economic reopening. Every recession is different and the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, as has been the response from governments and central banks. Through large-scale fiscal transfers and central bank […]

The macroeconomic outlook continues to improve, and the recovery may be faster than one that typically follows a business cycle recession, as vaccination rollouts accelerate, and the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package has been signed into law. This has prompted a surge in inflation expectations and commodity prices and a bond sell-off. The latest round of […]

The global economy remains dominated by the global pandemic. While the world was hoping to see a conclusion with the launch of vaccines as we entered 2021, rising COVID-19 cases and a more infectious new variant of the virus have created a renewed sense of caution. There have been over 94 million documented cases of […]

COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year as governments shut down large segments of their economies to slow the spread of the virus. There are some signs of recovery as the latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for September showed that real […]

Today, COVID-19 is no longer the unknown but the new normal and is spreading again in the U.S. and Europe. The combination of caution and restrictions on travel and hospitality continue to impede the recovery. The reopening of economies that began in May will contribute to GDP recovery, but a second wave of virus infections have […]

The global pandemic-induced GDP collapse has led to higher debt service burdens and lower ability to repay, resulting in an increase in non-performing loans and credit risk. We are now in a twilight zone of partial lockdowns. Fearful of rebellion, and of snuffing out signs of economic recovery, governments are opting for a hodge-podge of […]

The “golden era” of globalization is behind us. A drive towards de-globalization, that began for many nations following the Global Financial Crisis, has intensified as the current pandemic has exposed some of the vulnerabilities from global supply chains. The risk is that the current recession becomes a global depression. Depressions entail a prolonged period of […]

The role of the financial industry as an allocator and distributor of capital to the economy is critical to the evolution of the current pandemic. The current health crisis has morphed into an economic crisis, which has morphed into a financial crisis. While advances in testing and contact tracing will help, risk of a second […]

The economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis may pale in comparison to the human cost. Many people fear for their own health and that of their loved ones. As such, there is a “real” element to the fear factor. Measures to contain the virus have upended supply chains and financial markets and have weighed on […]

A global recession in 2020 is all but confirmed as nations shut down economic activity to limit the spread of COVID-19. The virus is unique in that it is a demand shock and supply shock, and also a negative wealth, oil price, and credit shock. There will be a wide range of subsequent effects. We […]

Global growth is projected to reach 2.5% in 20201. Reduced trade uncertainty combined with last year’s easing in financial conditions helped business sentiment stabilize in many major economies. The U.S. dollar benefitted from safe-haven demand over the past year amid this trade uncertainty. Global manufacturing activity generally remains soft; the global manufacturing PMI fell to […]

As uncertainty revs up, global GDP is on track to rise 3% in 2019, the slowest pace in a decade.1 Global trade volumes fell in 2019 for the first time since the Great Recession, reflecting roller coaster U.S.-China trade negotiations, a lack of progress on Brexit, and political unrest in Hong Kong and some Latin […]

Having already slowed from 4% to 3%, world GDP growth is set to take another leg down as growth in advanced economies slows to its weakest pace since 2012.1 Under the cloud of protectionism, global trade flows, which have been decelerating due to tariffs, are now outright contracting on a year-on-year basis. As a result, […]

While geopolitical developments have always played a role in economies and markets, their scale and impact has been steadily rising since the 2008 financial crisis. Against a hostile trade backdrop, the global economy is losing momentum. Forecasts for world GDP growth this year have fallen to 3.2% from the 3.9% economists expected a year ago.1 […]

The pace of global growth is slowing this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. Data points to the global economy expanding by 3.3% this year, slower than 2018’s 3.6% pace, with trade volumes declining and business sentiment deteriorating. 1  Central bank actions and intentions have boosted both equity and bond markets […]

Our outlook is focused on tension between politics, policy and the positioning of the corporate sector. The world economy remains vulnerable to the U.S – China power play. If tariffs persist or are ramped up further, already weak world trade volumes will struggle to gain traction. In addition, rising political conflict (Brexit and Italy) and […]

The current global economic expansion is already one of the longest in the post-war period, beginning in the second quarter of 2009 and now almost a decade long.  After three years of upgrades to global growth projections, the last three or four months have seen modest downgrades from organizations such as the IMF and the […]

Progress on U.S./China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish rhetoric regarding further interest rate hikes have not convinced us to change our forward outlook that expects the U.S. economy to experience stagnation over the next twelve months. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with Brexit’s outcome uncertain, upcoming elections in the European Union, and the […]

As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker corporate earnings. In the short-term, the […]