2021 Portfolio Updates
2020 Portfolio Updates
December 2020December 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
November 2020November 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
October 2020October 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
September 2020September 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
August 2020August 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
July 2020July 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
June 2020June 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
May 2020May 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
April 2020April 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
March 2020March 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
February 2020February 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
January 2020January 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
2019 Portfolio Updates
December 2019December 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
November 2019November 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
October 2019October 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
September 2019September 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
August 2019August 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
July 2019July 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
June 2019June 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
May 2019May 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
April 2019April 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
March 2019March 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
February 2019March 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
January 2019February 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
2018 Portfolio Updates
December 2018January 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
November 2018December 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
October 2018November 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
September 2018October 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
August 2018September 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
July 2018August 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
June 2018July 1, 2018 - 10:24 am
May 2018June 1, 2018 - 10:37 am
April 2018May 1, 2018 - 10:39 am
March 2018April 1, 2018 - 10:48 am
February 2018March 1, 2018 - 10:49 am
January 2018February 1, 2018 - 10:51 am
2017 Portfolio Updates
December 2017January 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
November 2017December 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
October 2017November 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
September 2017October 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
August 2017September 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
July 2017August 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
June 2017July 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
May 2017June 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
April 2017May 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
March 2017April 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
February 2017March 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
January 2017February 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
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March 2021
The macroeconomic outlook continues to improve, and the recovery may be faster than one that typically follows a business cycle recession, as vaccination rollouts accelerate, and the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package has been signed into law. This has prompted a surge in inflation expectations and commodity prices and a bond sell-off. The latest round of […]
February 2021
The global economy has experienced a type of regime shift in response to the pandemic, and the recovery that follows will not be typical of historic recoveries following periods of recession and stagnation. Since the pandemic began, our outlook has been influenced by virus-related developments and fiscal stimulus, with consumer spending particularly sensitive to changes […]
January 2021
The global economy remains dominated by the global pandemic. While the world was hoping to see a conclusion with the launch of vaccines as we entered 2021, rising COVID-19 cases and a more infectious new variant of the virus have created a renewed sense of caution. There have been over 94 million documented cases of […]
Q1 2021 Outlook
Section 1: Q1 2021 Outlook We Expect an Uneven Recovery and a Prolonged Global Recession While the world was hoping to see the conclusion of the global pandemic as we entered 2021, instead, we find ourselves more in the middle of the cycle. The pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession […]
December 2020
COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year as governments shut down large segments of their economies to slow the spread of the virus. There are some signs of recovery as the latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for September showed that real […]
November 2020
Global growth momentum continued into October, as industrial activity and trade readings from the U.S., China, and Japan pointed upward. Good news regarding various vaccine trials increased confidence that the pandemic will be less of a drag by Q2 2021. In the near term however, downward revisions to growth reflect recent restrictions on activity across […]
October 2020
Today, COVID-19 is no longer the unknown but the new normal and is spreading again in the U.S. and Europe. The combination of caution and restrictions on travel and hospitality continue to impede the recovery. The reopening of economies that began in May will contribute to GDP recovery, but a second wave of virus infections have […]
Q4 2020 Outlook
Section 1: Q4 2020 Outlook Teetering Between Recovery and Chaos COVID-19 has depressed economic activity around the world. Monetary and fiscal responses from governments and central banks in both developed and emerging economies since March are without precedent, far surpassing actions taken during the global financial crisis. We are currently living in a world […]
September 2020
The global pandemic-induced GDP collapse has led to higher debt service burdens and lower ability to repay, resulting in an increase in non-performing loans and credit risk. We are now in a twilight zone of partial lockdowns. Fearful of rebellion, and of snuffing out signs of economic recovery, governments are opting for a hodge-podge of […]
August 2020
The initial pick-up in economic activity that we saw in June began to fade in July as households and firms remained in cautious mode, particularly with new virus cases rising in some countries. Monetary policy is less effective as global interest rates are at their lowest levels, leaving central banks with little ammunition. Central banks […]
July 2020
The “golden era” of globalization is behind us. A drive towards de-globalization, that began for many nations following the Global Financial Crisis, has intensified as the current pandemic has exposed some of the vulnerabilities from global supply chains. The risk is that the current recession becomes a global depression. Depressions entail a prolonged period of […]
Q3 2020 Outlook
Section 1: Q3 2020 Outlook A Crisis Like No Other: Recovery in A Changed World The global economy is in its worst downturn since the 1930s. For the first time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020. There are, however, substantial differences across individual economies, reflecting the evolution of the pandemic […]
June 2020
The role of the financial industry as an allocator and distributor of capital to the economy is critical to the evolution of the current pandemic. The current health crisis has morphed into an economic crisis, which has morphed into a financial crisis. While advances in testing and contact tracing will help, risk of a second […]
May 2020
The economic impact of the extraordinary measures taken by governments all around the world to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve is highly uncertain. The outcome will depend on the evolution of the virus and the intensity and efficacy of containment efforts. Economic data continue to show severe economic disruptions associated with COVID-19 and only limited […]
April 2020
The economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis may pale in comparison to the human cost. Many people fear for their own health and that of their loved ones. As such, there is a “real” element to the fear factor. Measures to contain the virus have upended supply chains and financial markets and have weighed on […]
Q2 2020 Outlook
Section 1: Q2 2020 Outlook Global Risk: The World Is Heading for the Sharpest and Deepest Global Slowdown Since WW2 The economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis may pale in comparison to the human cost. Many people fear for their own health and that of their loved ones. As such, there is a “real” […]
March 2020
A global recession in 2020 is all but confirmed as nations shut down economic activity to limit the spread of COVID-19. The virus is unique in that it is a demand shock and supply shock, and also a negative wealth, oil price, and credit shock. There will be a wide range of subsequent effects. We […]
February 2020
The coronavirus outbreak in China has generated economic waves that are disrupting global supply networks that act as the backbone of the global economy and comes as the global economy was already cooling off. Profit warnings from companies with significant operations in China and abroad have begun. We are monitoring these developments and have concluded […]
January 2020
Global growth is projected to reach 2.5% in 20201. Reduced trade uncertainty combined with last year’s easing in financial conditions helped business sentiment stabilize in many major economies. The U.S. dollar benefitted from safe-haven demand over the past year amid this trade uncertainty. Global manufacturing activity generally remains soft; the global manufacturing PMI fell to […]
Q1 2020 Outlook
Section 1: Q1 2020 Outlook Current Risks of a Reserve Currency Trap The U.S. economy represents 33% of the global economy, but its spill-over effects on the rest of the world are amplified by the dominant role of the US dollar (USD) in international payments, debt issuance, and FX reserves.i The trust and confidence […]
December 2019
As uncertainty revs up, global GDP is on track to rise 3% in 2019, the slowest pace in a decade.1 Global trade volumes fell in 2019 for the first time since the Great Recession, reflecting roller coaster U.S.-China trade negotiations, a lack of progress on Brexit, and political unrest in Hong Kong and some Latin […]
November 2019
Global growth continues to be weak, with the global economy impacted by the U.S.-China trade war on the one hand, and global monetary easing on the other. The trade standoff has taken a toll on business confidence, industrial production, and trade flows. It has weighed heavily on global manufacturing and hit export-oriented economies, including China, […]
October 2019
Having already slowed from 4% to 3%, world GDP growth is set to take another leg down as growth in advanced economies slows to its weakest pace since 2012.1 Under the cloud of protectionism, global trade flows, which have been decelerating due to tariffs, are now outright contracting on a year-on-year basis. As a result, […]
Q4 2019 Outlook
Section 1: Q4 2019 Outlook Globalization Has Changed the Global Economy. Are We Now in a Period of De-Globalization? Our investment approach is focused on the expected behavior of asset classes in various economic environments. Our research shows that in addition to five broad economic environments – Growth, Stagnation, Inflation, Recession and Chaos – […]
September 2019
While geopolitical developments have always played a role in economies and markets, their scale and impact has been steadily rising since the 2008 financial crisis. Against a hostile trade backdrop, the global economy is losing momentum. Forecasts for world GDP growth this year have fallen to 3.2% from the 3.9% economists expected a year ago.1 […]
August 2019
The pace of global growth continues to slow this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. The 1% decline in global growth over the past year in conjunction with the trade war and a number of geopolitical conflicts raises the risk of recession as the rules-based approach to governing international trade […]
July 2019
The pace of global growth is slowing this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. Data points to the global economy expanding by 3.3% this year, slower than 2018’s 3.6% pace, with trade volumes declining and business sentiment deteriorating. 1 Central bank actions and intentions have boosted both equity and bond markets […]
Q3 2019 Outlook
Section 1: Q3 2019 Outlook The Danger of Politicizing the Central Bank As we enter the third quarter of 2019, we review recent global monetary policy and question how it has changed the traditional ways that we use it to detect risk in markets and the global economy. The global economy is expected to […]
June 2019
Our outlook is focused on tension between politics, policy and the positioning of the corporate sector. The world economy remains vulnerable to the U.S – China power play. If tariffs persist or are ramped up further, already weak world trade volumes will struggle to gain traction. In addition, rising political conflict (Brexit and Italy) and […]
May 2019
The global economy entered 2019 facing headwinds that included the ongoing uncertainty around the U.S. war on trade, a series of idiosyncratic events in the Euro area and the U.S. government shutdown. In April, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from the previous level of 3.5% in its latest World Economic Outlook. This […]
April 2019
The current global economic expansion is already one of the longest in the post-war period, beginning in the second quarter of 2009 and now almost a decade long. After three years of upgrades to global growth projections, the last three or four months have seen modest downgrades from organizations such as the IMF and the […]
Q2 2019 Outlook
Section 1. Q2 2019 Outlook Multiple Factors Raise the Prospect of Risk Asset Volatility As we look forward to the second quarter of 2019, we expect to experience greater volatility. Capital around the world moves to markets where it sees the greatest opportunity and to escape other relatively riskier international environments. The U.S. is […]
March 2019
Progress on U.S./China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish rhetoric regarding further interest rate hikes have not convinced us to change our forward outlook that expects the U.S. economy to experience stagnation over the next twelve months. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with Brexit’s outcome uncertain, upcoming elections in the European Union, and the […]
February 2019
Geopolitical risks are expected to dominate global asset class performance over the coming months. Consideration of ongoing trade tensions and the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown have led us to revise our forward outlook to reflect our view that the U.S. economy will experience stagnation over the next twelve months. While still undergoing revisions, […]
January 2019
As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker corporate earnings. In the short-term, the […]
Q1 2019 Outlook
Section 1. Q1 2019 Outlook As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker […]
December 2018
Recent reasons to hope for a more stable global economy in 2019 are contending with reasons to worry. Hope has come from the temporary U.S./China tariff truce and an oil supply shock that will positively impact global consumer spending next quarter. Concern remains as global geopolitical risks escalate, and the fading benefit of fiscal stimulus […]
November 2018
The global economy has delivered above-trend growth and a modest rise in inflation this year. This trend is expected to end, as increasing dependence on U.S. demand should not be capable of carrying the rest of the world. We expect that the combination of the escalating trade dispute with China and monetary tightening by the […]
October 2018
In October, we evolved our twelve-month forward-looking outlook to reflect a six-month period of Growth, followed by a six-month period of Inflation. The global economy remains on track for another year of solid growth, likely to be just under 4%, as we enter the fourth quarter of 2018. However, domestic factors are causing the overall […]
Q4 2018 Outlook
Section 1. Q4 2018 Outlook Economies Diverge and Divisive Politics Dominate A year ago, global economies were enjoying synchronized growth. Growth increased in every large economy during 2017, except Britain, and even in most emerging economies. Global trade was surging with the U.S. booming and China’s deflation under control. While President Trump’s tax cuts […]
September 2018
In September, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. During 2018, global growth appears to have peaked at 3.8% after picking up steam through the second half of last year1. We expect further […]
August 2018
In August, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointment remains. Tariffs generate what economists call […]
July 2018
In July, we updated our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are now factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointments has increased. The WTO issued a […]
June 2018
In June we carried the outlook forward from May with Growth in the first half of the twelve-month time horizon heading toward Inflation in the back half. World trade weakened slightly in Q1 2018 to 4.4% compared to 4.7% in 2017¹. The global economy was handed a curve ball in May as the U.S. unilaterally […]
May 2018
In May, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. The global economy is running at its fastest pace since the very early days of the current economic recovery. The IMF upgraded its outlook for 2018 and 2019, calling for the world economy to achieve […]
April 2018
In April we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Global momentum remains strong as the IMF forecasts 3.9% growth this year and next, the fastest since 2011 thanks to increasing investment and trade. The strength of global demand is leading to a significant increase […]
March 2018
In March, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Fundamentals (job growth, corporate profits, corporate and consumer confidence) remain very strong globally for now even as manufacturing downshifts. The commitment by President Trump to impose tariffs on China would be the main driver of […]
February 2018
In February, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. The data coming in from 2017 confirms that the synchronized world economic recovery also contributed to global EPS growth across most markets in 2017. China continues to grow but a slowdown is underway, resulting from policy tightening as the authorities became more concerned […]
January 2018
In January, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. Global growth has become more trend line in 2018, led by global demand and a revival in commodity prices, allowing most policymakers the flexibility to pursue much-needed reforms without stifling growth. A few developed market central banks are facing conflicting signals as economic […]
December 2017
In December, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting to Stagnation for the following nine months as we see the initial impact of U.S. tax reform on consumer and business behavior contributing to short-term U.S. growth. Global growth is expected to return to its trend rate of 3.7% in 2018 as […]
November 2017
In November, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. Synchronous global growth is expected to remain in place for 2017. Contributions to this growth include inflation standing below most central banks’ 2% objective, G3 capital goods orders climbing at the fastest pace since […]
October 2017
In October, we changed our outlook to Growth for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. The economic expansion in advanced economies seems set to continue for the next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching full employment, inflation has remained below […]
Q3 2017 Report
Market Priced Volatility and Real-World Uncertainty Economic expansion in advanced economies is expected to continue into next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. The U.S. Fed is expected to continue slowly unwinding QE while raising rates, and the ECB is likely to begin to taper its asset purchases during 2018. Prospects for […]
September 2017
In September, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The global economy continues to chug along with the July IMF forecast for global economic growth of 3.5% for 2017 and 3.6% for 2018 looking attainable¹. All 46 countries monitored by the OECD are on a growth track this year for the […]
August 2017
In August, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. This outlook is centered on the United States. The pickup in global growth remains on track, a departure from years past when estimates slid lower as the year progressed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global output to grow by 3.5% in […]
July 2017
In July, we continued with our global Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Economic Outlook continues as expected with global output projected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.1 At the country level, growth projections are lower for the United States, assuming fiscal policy […]
Q2 2017 Report
The Outlook for Interest Rates, the Economy and Inflation in the U.S. and Among the Other Major World Economies The U.S. Fed will probably start shrinking its balance sheet in September and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases in the first half of 2018. What is the outlook for interest rates, the […]
June 2017
In June, we continued with our global Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Although growth was lower than expected in Q1 in several G7 economies, a slow expansion is now well established across the board. That said, some of these economies have made a much better recovery from the crisis than others. The European […]
May 2017
In May, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The outlook for the world economy is improving and world trade has picked up. Manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are improving and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. The recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum after being […]
April 2017
In April, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. After a lackluster showing in 2016, economic activity in emerging and developing economies is projected by the International Monetary Fund to pick up the pace in 2017 and 2018. There is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes, however. Persistent structural problems […]
Q1 2017 Report
When does inflation begin to change investment decisions? During the first quarter of 2017 we removed U.S. inflation from our outlook and reverted to Stagnation for all global economies for the twelve-month forward forecast. Looking to the future, our analysis suggests that ongoing monetary accommodation is unlikely to have significant inflationary consequences, if inflation expectations […]
March 2017
In March, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Expectations for the world economy in 2017 are relatively unchanged from last month. The U.S. economy is expected to stagnate as Trump fiscal stimulus is not expected until 2018. Political clouds on the horizon include the first round of the French […]
February 2017
In February, we adjusted our twelve-month forward outlook to remove Inflation for the U.S. and reverted to Stagnation across all global economies. Last year, markets had to digest Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) and the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. This year, markets will focus on three […]
January 2017
In January, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook to reflect the inflationary environment that is expected to result from the new regime in the U.S. while the rest of the world continues to struggle with stagnation. While the International Monetary Fund projects that global GDP in 2017 will improve to 3.4% from 3.1%, there is […]