Portfolio Updates

Following the massive wave of global tariffs initiated by the U.S administration in 2025 and retaliatory cycles extending into late 2026, we are no longer dealing with a temporary trade shift. Instead, the global economy has adapted to a protectionist trade regime that has reset international supply chains. Central banks, including the Bank of Canada […]

Tariffs are back in play. Canadians are fighting a trade and an economic war, supported by a majority, to defend their sovereignty against the U.S. Canada has placed counter-tariffs on several hundred products made in the U.S. as retaliation for a new set of tariffs imposed on Canada by the Trump White House. A selloff […]

The U.S., China, Europe, and an assertive group of middle powers (Canada) are pursuing distinct models of economic security. Politics, geopolitics, and economic security policy now shape growth and inflation directly, increasing dispersion across countries, sectors, and firms while continuing to raise market and macro volatility. These forces are testing economic resilience, as economies cope […]

Events in the Middle East have materially changed the near-term economic and financial outlook. Economies’ sensitivities to the conflict and its knock-on effects differ. Many of the largest economies in Asia-Pacific are heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East. The impact on an economy will also be determined by a range of factors, […]

As the U.S. economy adjusts to global tariffs, disruption and uncertainty impact the entire globe. The U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th put 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil at risk, amounting to 3.5% of global supply. A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and accounts for 20% of […]

In December, the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment led to a weaker U.S. dollar and marginally lower interest rates. This environment has resulted in a broader push for portfolio diversification amid lacklustre bond returns and concerns of volatility in equity markets. Investment demand for gold has surged across all regions, while central banks continued their buying […]

Sweeping tariffs across a wide-ranging group of trading partners threaten to hobble global growth and push up prices for consumers and businesses. The effective tariff rate in the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly a century. Households are reining in spending given the prospect for higher prices, while businesses are lowering […]

U.S. tariffs implemented this year were sold to the American public as being paid by foreign exporters, recharging U.S. manufacturing, and narrowing the size of U.S. trade and fiscal deficits. Early data suggests tariffs are not achieving those goals. U.S. Job growth has decelerated—including in the trade-sensitive manufacturing sector that was meant to benefit from […]

Economic and trade policy uncertainties have led to reallocation of global capital, causing a weaker U.S. dollar, rising gold prices, and U.S. Treasury bond yields widening. Consumer confidence and business investment intentions have been affected by economic and trade policy uncertainty. This in turn has triggered a reallocation of global capital out of the U.S. […]

Recent market turbulence underscores a shifting global outlook as tariffs usher in a new economic era. On April 2nd, the U.S unveiled the most significant tariffs in almost a century, deepening a decline in U.S. stocks. By April 9th, as broad-based tariffs took effect, the U.S. 30-year bond yield surged amid a sell-off in the […]

U.S. trade policy represents a clear and significant risk to our macro-economic forecast. Open trade between Canada and the United States has benefitted both countries, increasing efficiency, spurring investment, boosting productivity, and raising standards of living. The imposition of tariffs will kick this into reverse. Tariffs on Canadian goods would lead to higher gas and […]

The U.S. is set to be the top performer among Group of Seven countries, according to International Monetary Fund projections, while world GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.1 Geopolitical tensions are weighing on the global economy while high public debt and defence budgets are crimping governments’ ability to spend. U.S. consumer […]