Following the massive wave of global tariffs initiated by the U.S administration in 2025 and retaliatory cycles extending into late 2026, we are no longer dealing with a temporary trade shift. Instead, the global economy has adapted to a protectionist trade regime that has reset international supply chains. Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, have noted that this trade conflict causes structural rather than cyclical damage. Unlike a typical recession where idle factories can easily restart when consumer demand returns, the current tariff regime has forced permanent corporate re-allocations. Companies are abandoning long-term investments, absorbing lower profit margins, and shifting capital away from cross-border commerce. Some companies are moving away from rather than into the U.S, due to the need to avoid trade policy volatility. In October we held our twelve-month forward outlook at twelve months of Stagnation over the next twelve- month period.

China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in Q3 2026. Growth was supported by recent policy easing and resilient exports, particularly of AI-related components, high-tech manufactured goods, and electric vehicles.¹ China’s annual inflation rate edged up to 0.9% in September,² while China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.2%.³ China’s trade surplus widened to $133.53 billion in September. Exports jumped 36.3% year over year. Imports jumped 31%.⁴ The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% in Q3 2026.⁵ The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated to 3.8% in September. Prices rose faster for energy (18.9%).⁶ The Euro Area posted a trade deficit. Imports surged by 16.7% from the previous year, as the war in the Middle East and the resulting blockade of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf lifted petroleum and petroleum product purchases by 20.7%. Exports rose by 9.9%. Exports to the United States were up 18.5% from the previous year.⁷

The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 3.4% in Q3 2026, compared to a 2.2% rise in Q2. The government sector jumped 5.3%, led by sales of crude oil from the Strategic Reserve.⁸ The U.S. annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7% in September. Gasoline rose 34.2% year over year, and fuel oil prices increased 74.2%.⁹ The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September.¹⁰ The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion in August. The widening was driven by a $17.2 billion surge in imports to an all-time high of $420.8 billion, led by crude oil and non-monetary gold.¹¹ The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 3.1% in September. Prices accelerated 27.8% for gasoline, tracking the recent surge in crude oil prices.¹² The unemployment rate in Canada inched up to 6.5% in September.¹³ Canada recorded a trade surplus of C$4.2 billion in August of 2026, widening from the upwardly revised C$0.79 billion in the earlier month to mark the largest trade surplus since May of 2022. Exports jumped by 2.5% from the previous month as the increase in energy prices due to the war in the Middle East drove energy product sales to surge 4.7%. Exports to the U.S. surged 8.1% as U.S. consumers likely front-loaded purchases of Canadian goods before a series of tariffs took effect later in the month. Meanwhile, imports fell by 2.0%.¹⁴

U.S. equities continued upwards in Q3, propelled by strong corporate fundamentals and economic growth. Shrugging off Treasury yields soaring to multiyear highs, ongoing geopolitical concerns, and worries over the sustainability of the AI trade, the S&P 500 closed the quarter up 2.3%. Mid and small caps underperformed, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 and S&P Small Cap 600 down 6.4% and 7.9%, respectively. The S&P/TSX Composite increased 1.6% in Q3. The S&P Europe 350 fell 2.4% in September and 0.8% over Q3. The United Kingdom was the largest positive contributor to the index, rising 2% in GBP terms over the quarter. Amid higher interest rates and oil prices, Asia Pacific equities kept pace with global peers, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI (USD) rising 1.8% in Q3.

In October we maintained the September asset allocation. Heavy debt issuance from governments and businesses is helping to push long dated yields to multi-year highs. Our fixed income duration remains toward the short end. We continue to have a higher allocation to Canadian equities over U.S. equities as Canada is preferred as a more stable market. Gold is held across all models as a geopolitical risk hedge. Gold’s historical performance during times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and inflation hedging are also key factors for central banks to hold and add to their gold reserves.

The war in the Middle East has prompted the U.S. and Iran to tighten their blockade of oil and fuel tankers crossing the Persian Gulf, driving up global inflation. Investors are deciding how much compensation they require to commit capital longer term, in a world where inflation is less predictable and governments are issuing considerably more debt. Downside risks intensify while there is no resolution to the escalating trade war. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO                                 

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. October 19, 2026.

² Trading Economics. China Inflation. October 14, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. China Unemployment. October 19, 2026.

 ⁴ Trading Economics. China Trade. October 14, 2026.

 ⁵ Trading Economics. EU GDP. October 30, 2026.

 ⁶ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. October 16, 2026.

 ⁷ Trading Economics. EU Trade. October 16, 2026.

 ⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. October 29, 2026.

 ⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. October 14, 2026.

 ¹⁰ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. October 2, 2026.

 ¹¹ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. October 6, 2026.

 ¹² Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. October 19, 2026.

 ¹³ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. October 9, 2026.

 ¹⁴ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. October 6, 2026.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. September 30, 2026. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

Tariffs are back in play. Canadians are fighting a trade and an economic war, supported by a majority, to defend their sovereignty against the U.S. Canada has placed counter-tariffs on several hundred products made in the U.S. as retaliation for a new set of tariffs imposed on Canada by the Trump White House. A selloff in long-term U.S. Treasuries accelerated in July after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady. Leaving rates unchanged lowered short-term bond yields, while hurting long bonds, as investors feared that the lack of action will fuel inflationary pressures down the line. The gap between short- and long-term rates widened, steepening the yield curve. The attempt by the fed to bring long rates down by purchasing long term bonds in the market was short-lived and will hinder any hopes that the U.S. has to get the debt under control. The U.S. national debt topped $40 trillion as of August, driven by cumulative budget deficits and rising borrowing costs. In August we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook of three months of Stagnation (U.S. Real GDP growth less than 2.5%) followed by nine months of Recession (negative GDP growth) over the next twelve- month period.

China’s annual inflation eased to 0.5% in July 2026,¹ while China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in July from a one-year low of 5.0% in June.² China’s trade surplus widened to USD 112.5 billion in July, up from USD 97.70 billion a year earlier. Exports jumped 23.9%, driven by strong demand for AI-related technology products and a rush by manufacturers to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs. Imports rose 27.7%.³ Eurozone economic growth accelerated to 1% in the second quarter from a revised 0.5% three months earlier.⁴ Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July. The increase was driven by a renewed surge in energy prices, with energy inflation accelerating to 10.3% as hostilities between the U.S. and Iran resumed.⁵ The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone was at 6.3% in July.⁶ The Euro Area recorded a trade surplus of €8.6 billion in June 2026, up from €4.8 billion in June 2025. Shipments increased to all major trading partners, including the U.S. (10.3%). Imports also rose across the board, particularly from the U.S. (11.6%), China (12%), and the UK (12.1%).⁷

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 2.1% in the previous quarter. Government spending fell 1.0%, dragged by a 13.2% plunge in non-defense federal spending. Imports surged 12.5%, outpacing a 4.5% increase in exports.⁸ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 3.4% in July 2026,⁹ while the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in July.¹⁰ The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, as imports declined more sharply than exports.¹¹ Canada’s economy expanded 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in the previous three-month period, driven by stronger exports, household spending, and business capital investment. Exports rose 3.6%. On an annualized basis, the economy grew 3.3%.¹² Headline inflation in Canada inched higher to 3% in July from 2.8% in the previous month. Gasoline price inflation accelerated to 25.7%, tracking wholesale oil and refined product markets globally as strikes between Iran and the U.S. reignited in the period and triggered blockades on tankers in the key region.¹³ The unemployment rate in Canada fell to 6.4% in July from 6.5% in the previous month.¹⁴ Canada recorded a trade surplus of C$3.86 billion in June, widening from the C$3.7 billion in May to mark the largest surplus in over four years.¹⁵ 

Turbulence continued to plague U.S. markets in July, as stocks were buffeted by AI related jitters and fluctuating oil prices. The S&P 500 finished the month down 0.1%. Smaller-caps and mega-caps underperformed their large-cap peers, with the S&P Midcap 400 and S&P Small cap 600 declining by 2.4% and 1.9% respectively. The S&P/TSX Composite increased 1.2%. European indices closed July with the S&P Europe 350 gaining 1.2% over the month. The Netherlands, the prior quarter’s leading contributor, became the largest detractor, while the U.K. ranked as July’s top contributor. Global equities cooled in July, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI (USD) declining 1.6%. 

In August we maintained the July asset allocation. We continue to have a higher allocation to Canadian equities over U.S. equities as Canada is preferred as a more stable market. Gold is held across all models as a geopolitical risk hedge. Gold’s historical performance during times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and inflation hedging are also key factors for central banks to hold and add to their gold reserves.

Downside risks intensify while there is no resolution to the escalating trade war. The global economy is moving away from the U.S. as countries are strengthening their connections as a natural defence against America’s retreat, and Canada is at the centre of those expanding connections. 116 trade agreements have been announced between 31 countries excluding the United States since Trump’s second term commenced. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO                                    

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China Inflation. August 9, 2026.

² Trading Economics. China Unemployment. August 17, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. China Trade. August 7, 2026.

⁴ Trading Economics. EU GDP. August 14, 2026.

⁵ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. August 19, 2026.

⁶ Trading Economics. EU Unemployment. August 1, 2026.

⁷ Trading Economics. EU Trade. August 14, 2026.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. August 26, 2026.

⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. August 12, 2026.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. August 7, 2026.

¹¹ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. August 4, 2026.

¹² Trading Economics. Canada GDP. August 28, 2026.

¹³ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. August 17, 2026.

¹⁴ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. August 7, 2026.

¹⁵ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. August 4, 2026.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. July 31, 2026. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

The U.S., China, Europe, and an assertive group of middle powers (Canada) are pursuing distinct models of economic security. Politics, geopolitics, and economic security policy now shape growth and inflation directly, increasing dispersion across countries, sectors, and firms while continuing to raise market and macro volatility. These forces are testing economic resilience, as economies cope with strained balance sheets. Governments are playing a more direct role in shaping economic outcomes toward the broader goals of economic security. Trade restrictions, export controls, subsidies, investment screening, and public procurement are now core tools of economic strategy.  In June we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook of three months of Stagnation (U.S. Real GDP growth less than 2.5%) followed by nine months of Recession (negative GDP growth) over the next twelve- month period.

China’s economy expanded 5.0% in Q1 2026. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, supported largely by resilient export performance.¹ China’s annual inflation held steady at 1.2% in May² while surveyed urban unemployment edged lower to 5.1%.³ China’s trade surplus widened to USD 105.43 billion in May. Export growth accelerated to 19.4% year-on-year while imports jumped 27.4%. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. climbed to USD 26.02 billion in May from USD 23.07 billion in April.⁴ The Eurozone economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026.⁵ Eurozone consumer price inflation held at 3.2% in May⁶ while seasonally adjusted unemployment rose to 6.3%.⁷ 

The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 2.1% in Q1 2026, revised up from 1.6% in the second estimate, and above 0.5% in Q4 2025. The contribution from net trade was less negative, as imports growth was revised lower to 11.8% and exports rose 10.9%. Government spending was up 4.4%, recovering from a 5.6% contraction, as activity resumed following the end of the government shutdown.⁸ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. rose for the third consecutive month, to 4.2% in May 2026, marking its highest level since April 2023. Energy costs jumped 23.5% (vs 17.9% in April), due to the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran.⁹ The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in May.¹⁰ The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April. Exports rose 2.6%. Imports increased 2.0%.¹¹ The Canadian GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2026, holding the 0.2% contraction from the last quarter of 2025.¹² The headline inflation rate in Canada rose to 3.2% in May, from 2.8% in the previous month,¹³ while the unemployment rate in Canada fell to 6.6% from 6.9% in the previous month.¹⁴ Canada reported a trade surplus of C$2.7 billion in April 2026, up from C$1.8 billion in the prior month. Exports rose 1.6% month-on-month, while imports edged up 0.3%. The country’s trade surplus with the United States widened to C$9.5 billion in April from C$7.8 billion in March, the largest surplus since February 2025, driven largely by higher oil prices driven by the Iranian conflict.¹⁵

The rally in U.S. equities continued in May, as strong tech earnings and AI-related exuberance propelled the S&P 500 to eleven all-time closing highs, while declining oil prices and easing geopolitical concerns amplified the market’s positive sentiment. The 500 finished the month with a 5.3% gain. Mid-and small-cap equities lagged large caps, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 up 2.5% and the S&P Small Cap 600 up 1.04%. The S&P/TSX Composite increased 2.5%. The S&P Europe 350 climbed 3.1% in May. Asia Pacific equities advanced in May, as the spotlight turned from Middle East uncertainties to AI, driving a 7.3% gain in the S&P Pan Asia BMI (USD). Progress on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to a13.3% decline in the S&P GSCI Crude Oil.

In June we maintained exposure to U.S. and Canadian Equities. We continue to believe that Canada is managing the U.S. tariff uncertainty relatively well, replacing some U.S. exports with contracts in Europe and abroad. Central banks have much more room to cut rates in future economic downturns than in the decade before the pandemic and we expect that they will, to keep inflation expectations anchored over the next year.  Gold is held across all models as a geopolitical risk hedge. Gold’s historical performance during times of crisis, portfolio diversification, and inflation hedging are also key factors for central banks to hold and add to their gold reserves.

Artificial intelligence has crossed a threshold. AI investment is now large enough to drive macroeconomic activity. The AI investment boom, rising defense spending, and energy security investments will add to global capital spending over the next five years. AI’s potential to compress wages and raise productivity could become a powerful disinflationary force, but geopolitical shocks and supply chain reconfiguration will likely put upward pressure on prices. We see a range of outcomes (“fat tails”). Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. April 16, 2026.

² Trading Economics. China Inflation. June 10, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. China Unemployment. June 16, 2026.

⁴ Trading Economics. China Trade. June 9, 2026.

⁵ Trading Economics. Eurozone GDP. June 5, 2026.

⁶ Trading Economics. Eurozone Inflation. June 17, 2026.

⁷ Trading Economics. Eurozone Unemployment. June 1, 2026.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. June 25, 2026.

⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. June 10, 2026.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. June 5, 2026.

¹¹ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. June 9, 2026.

¹² Trading Economics. Canada GDP. May 29, 2026.

¹³ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. June 22, 2026.

¹⁴ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. June 5, 2026.

¹⁵ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. June 9, 2026.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. May 31, 2026. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

Events in the Middle East have materially changed the near-term economic and financial outlook. Economies’ sensitivities to the conflict and its knock-on effects differ. Many of the largest economies in Asia-Pacific are heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East. The impact on an economy will also be determined by a range of factors, including its energy mix, strategic reserves, policy responses, and whether it is a net energy importer or exporter. As the U.S. and Canada are energy exporters, this mitigates the impact on their projected growth rates over the next twelve months. In April we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook of three months of Stagnation (U.S. Real GDP growth less than 2.5%) followed by nine months of Recession (negative GDP growth) over the next twelve- month period.

China’s economy expanded 5.0% in Q1 2026. The economy has managed to absorb the shock of the Iran conflict with limited disruption, supported by ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility.¹ China’s annual inflation eased to 1.0% in March,² while surveyed urban unemployment rate to 5.4% in March.³ China’s trade surplus narrowed to $51.13 billion in March 2026. Export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% while imports soared 27.8% year-on-year.⁴ The Euro Area’s annual inflation rate was revised higher to 2.6% in March. The increase was largely driven by energy, with prices rising 5.1%, as the conflict with Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher. Considering the bloc’s largest economies, inflation rose in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands (2.6% vs 2.3%).⁵ Unemployment in the Euro Area increased to 6.20% in February.⁶

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.5% in Q4 2025, revised down further from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the preliminary reading.⁷ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. jumped to 3.3% in March, driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), due to the war with Iran.⁸ The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in March.⁹ The trade deficit in the U.S. widened to $57.3 billion in February 2026 as exports increased 4.2%, led by nonmonetary gold and natural gas. Imports went up 4.3%. The largest deficits were recorded with Taiwan, followed by Mexico, Vietnam, and China. The gap with the EU decreased to $5.1 billion from $6.1 billion and the shortfall with Canada also narrowed to $0.74 billion from $2.7 billion.¹⁰ Headline inflation in Canada surged to 2.4% in March. The surge reflected the initial impact of war, as the disruption of tankers from the Persian Gulf triggered energy shortages worldwide.¹¹ The unemployment rate in Canada stood at 6.7% in March.¹² Canada’s trade deficit rose to C$5.7 billion in February 2026, as total imports surged 8.4% to a record high of C$72.1 billion, led by a 45.6% jump in purchases of metal and non-metallic mineral products, particularly gold in the United States. Exports rose 6.4% to C$66.3 billion.  Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. shrank to C$1.7B, as imports surged 13.6% and exports rose 4.4%.¹³

Global financial conditions have tightened since late February, with equity prices declining and bond yields and spreads increasing. U.S. equities navigated a turbulent first quarter, buffeted by a trifecta of tariff -related anxiety, renewed AI concerns, and private credit worries. Jitters escalated in March as the conflict in the Middle East reignited stagflation fears, and hopes for Fed rate cuts dissipated. The S&P 500 closed March down 5.0%. The S&P Mid Cap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 were down by 5.4% and 4.1%, respectively. The S&P/TSX Composite was down 4.3% in March.  The S&P Europe 350® was heavily impacted by the war with Iran, plunging 7.5% in March. Asia Pacific equities initially rose but reversed course in March, leaving the S&P Pan Asia BMI (USD) down 12.7% in March.

In April we maintained exposure to U.S. and Canadian Equities. We continue to believe that Canada is managing the U.S. tariff uncertainty relatively well, replacing some U.S. exports with contracts in Europe and abroad. Gold is held across all models as a long-term strategic asset, playing a role as an effective hedge against the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. Gold has become more tightly linked to reserve accumulation by central banks while volatility has been triggered by liquidity-driven deleveraging, not by a change in fundamentals.

How the conflict and related disruptions evolve in the outlook period will determine the effects on commodity and financial markets and the economic implications. The global system is moving deeper into a regime defined by rising volatility across asset classes, energy scarcity, fiscal strain, and elevated inflation risk. For the U.S. economy, stagflation risk is higher because of limited policy flexibility from the Federal Reserve. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. April 16, 2026.

² Trading Economics. China Inflation. April 10, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. China Unemployment. April 16, 2026.

⁴ Trading Economics. China Trade. April 14, 2026.

⁵ Trading Economics. Europe Inflation. April 16, 2026.

⁶ Trading Economics. Europe Unemployment. April 1, 2026.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. April 9, 2026.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. April 10, 2026.

⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. April 3, 2026.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. April 2, 2026.

¹¹ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. April 20, 2026.

¹² Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. April 10, 2026.

¹³ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. April 2, 2026.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. March 31, 2026. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

As the U.S. economy adjusts to global tariffs, disruption and uncertainty impact the entire globe. The U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th put 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil at risk, amounting to 3.5% of global supply. A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and accounts for 20% of global oil and LNG transits, further heightens the global impact. Iran’s retaliation has rained missiles on Israel, its Arab neighbours and American bases in the region.  Iran’s leadership may see dragging its Gulf neighbours further into the crisis as one of its few means of forcing America back to the negotiating table. Market mayhem could just be the start of it if the war drags on and spreads farther into the Middle East. A protracted and messy conflict will push energy prices upward around the world, raising inflation and grinding growth to a halt, prolonging stagflation. In February we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook of three months of Stagnation (U.S. Real GDP growth less than 2.5%) followed by nine months of Recession (negative GDP growth) over the next twelve- month period.

China’s annual inflation eased to 0.2% in January 2026 from 0.8% a month earlier.¹ The Euro Area economy expanded by 1.3% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025. Ireland posted the strongest growth at 6.7%, followed by Spain (2.6%), Lithuania (2.5%), Portugal (1.9%) and the Netherlands (1.8%).² Annual inflation in the Euro Area was confirmed at 1.7% in January,³ while the unemployment rate in the Euro Area decreased to 6.2% in December.⁴

The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025. Exports fell 0.9% after surging 9.6% in Q3, and imports declined (-1.3% vs -4.4%). For 2025, the U.S. economy expanded 2.2%.⁵ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 2.4% in January,⁶ while the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.⁷ The U.S. trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December 2025. Exports were down 1.7%, led by a fall in nonmonetary gold. Imports were up 3.6%. For 2025, the U.S. recorded a $901.5 billion trade deficit. Deficits narrowed with the E.U. and China, but widened with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan.⁸ Canadian GDP declined by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The contraction was driven by a withdrawal of business inventories. Increased capital investment was driven by government investment in weapons systems. On an annual basis, the Canadian GDP grew by 1.7% in 2025.⁹ The headline inflation rate in Canada eased to 2.3% in January. Deflation picked up for transportation due to the 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices,¹⁰ while the unemployment rate in Canada fell to 6.5%.¹¹ Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to C$1.31 billion in December.  Exports rose 2.6% month over month. These gains were partly offset by a 1.0% decline in energy product exports. Canada’s surplus with the U.S. narrowed to C$5.7 billion, while the deficit with countries narrowed to C$7.0 billion.¹²

It was a rollercoaster start to the year for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 closed the month up 1.5%, despite a pullback during the final two trading days of the month. The S&P Mid Cap 400 and S&P Small Cap 600 advanced 4.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Major Canadian equity indices finished the month with mixed results. The S&P/TSX Composite increased 0.8%. Canadian sectors posted mixed performance for the month, with Energy leading, up 10.6%, while Information Technology fell 17.6%. The S&P Europe 350 rose 3.3% to start the year. Asia Pacific equities began the year on a strong footing, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 7.2% in January.

In February we reduced exposure to U.S. Equities in the Moderate Growth, Growth, and Aggressive Growth models and added that exposure to Canadian Equities. We continue to believe that Canada is managing the U.S. tariff uncertainty relatively well, replacing some U.S. exports with contracts in Europe and abroad. Gold is held across all models as a long-term strategic asset, playing a role as an effective hedge against the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. Gold has historically been negatively correlated with the dollar. 

For the U.S. economy, stagflation risk is higher because of limited policy flexibility from the Federal Reserve. During an energy shock, the Fed may lower short-term interest rates to mitigate inflationary pressures. But significant rate cuts this year, as inflation has remained above the Fed’s preferred 2% target, remain unlikely.  We continue to monitor the global selloff of U.S. treasuries and the growing holdings of gold. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China Inflation. February 11, 2026.

² Trading Economics. EU GDP. February 13, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. February 25, 2026.

⁴ Trading Economics. EU Unemployment. January 30, 2026.

⁵ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. February 20, 2026.

⁶ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. February 13, 2026.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. February 11, 2026.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. February 17, 2026.

⁹ Trading Economics. Canada GDP. February 27, 2026.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. February 17, 2026.

¹¹ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. February 6, 2026.

¹² Trading Economics. Canada Trade. February 19, 2026.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. January 31, 2026. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.