At the start of the year, inflation was widely expected to pick up as the base effects of a collapse in energy prices in the spring of 2020 began to show up in year-on-year inflation readings. The magnitude of the increase now appears to extend beyond those effects due to the ongoing rise in commodity prices, persistent and more severe bottlenecks in manufacturing supply chains, and jumps in the price of certain items of the Consumer Price Index, such as used cars, travel, and accommodation. Looking ahead, most of these inflationary impulses are likely to fade over the next twelve months as supply bottlenecks ease. In addition, there is a sizeable pool of unemployed workers, unlike in most previous inflationary episodes, even if there is no precedent for the kind of shock the U.S. and other economies have undergone over the past 18 months.

In mid-July, our growth concerns were largely driven by the delta variant. Fortunately, the delta wave is not generating a high level of hospitalizations or fatalities to force the reintroduction of lockdowns in major Western economies. Currently, Chinese growth and regulatory risks and Fed tapering concerns in addition to retail sales contractions in the U.S., China, and the U.K. are our primary risk concerns. On the geopolitical front, the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is ongoing. In August, we updated our twelve-month forecast to reflect our view that Stagnation is no longer a risk. Our current twelve-month outlook is for Growth (U.S. GDP greater than 2.5%) through the period.

China has centralized political power to move rapidly on reforms, creating new structural problems while antagonizing foreign nations. The Chinese economy advanced 7.9% year-on-year in Q2 of 2021. A slowdown in factory activity, higher raw material costs, and new COVID-19 outbreaks in some regions all weighed on the recovery momentum.1 The Eurozone quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 2.0% in 2021 Q2, following two consecutive periods of contraction. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands returned to growth.2 The Euro Area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 7.7% in June. The U.K. unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in Q2 although the rate remained 0.8 percentage points higher than before the pandemic.3

The U.S. economy advanced an annualized 6.5% in Q2 2021. Personal consumption expenditures grew 11.8% as vaccinated Americans traveled and engaged in activities that were restricted before.4 U.S. CPI stood at 5.4% in July 2021, unchanged from previous month’s 13-year high.5 The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.4% in July. These levels remain well above their levels prior to the coronavirus pandemic (3.5% in February 2020).6 Fed officials expressed a range of views on the appropriate pace of tapering asset purchases, but most noted that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year, provided that the economy was to evolve broadly. The Fed left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% in July.7 In Canada, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.7% in July of 2021 from 3.1% in June.8 The unemployment rate fell to 7.5% in July from 7.8% in June.9 The Bank of Canada left its key overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% on July 14th but adjusted the quantitative easing program to a target pace of $2bn from $3bn per week.

U.S. equities generally ended  July in positive territory, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 2.4%. S&P MidCap 400 posted slight gains of 0.4%, while the S&P SmallCap 600 fell 2.4%. The S&P/TSX Composite was up 0.8%. Asian equities declined, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI down 4.1%, led by heavy losses in China, as a result of Beijing’s clampdown on tech companies. The S&P Europe 350 continued to climb, marking new all-time highs, as it rode to a total return of 1.8%. With the U.K. lagging this month, Switzerland, France, and the Netherlands lead; contributing more than half of S&P Europe 350’s returns.

In August, we maintained our asset allocation from July for all portfolio models. The U.S. economy is slowly recovering. Fiscal spending that funds local governments supports our exposure to treasuries and municipal bond exposure in the U.S. The yield curve flattened in July. We continue to include gold in the asset allocation as a portfolio stabilizer during volatile equity markets.

Our outlook hinges on whether the sources of recent disappointment related to the Delta wave, China policy, and global supply constraints are transitory.  Concerns remain about the global spread of the pandemic and an unbalanced recovery domestically. The changing picture of the economy comes with structural changes that will challenge some sectors. The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 Trading Economics. China GDP, National Bureau of Statistics of China. July 15, 2021.

2 Trading Economics. Europe GDP. August 17, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. Europe Unemployment, Office for National Statistics. July 30, 2021.

4 Trading Economics. U.S. GDP, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. August 26, 2021.

5 Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation,  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. August 11, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. August 6, 2021.

7 Trading Economics. U.S. Federal Reserve. July 28, 2021.

8 Trading Economics. Canada Inflation, Statistics Canada. August 18, 2021.

9 Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. August 6, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. July 30, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The COVID-19 pandemic appears to be less dramatic and lethal than some historic plagues and vaccinations will limit impact. Unfortunately, after substantial progress, the world faces a new enemy in the Delta variant. This highly contagious form of the virus devastated the subcontinent in spring and has now spread to almost 100 countries including the U.K., Spain, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Malaysia where it has sparked a resurgence of cases. Signs of accelerating inflation around the world may be transitory or more lasting. How central banks respond to price pressures during a post-Covid economic rebound will determine inflation’s impact. We have maintained our economic outlook of three months of Growth followed by Stagnation for the remainder of our twelve-month forecast horizon.

The Chinese economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 1.3% in Q2 2021.1 China’s economy sustained a steady recovery, with production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, market expectations improving, and major macro indicators staying within a reasonable range. In Europe, the improving health situation and ensuing continued easing of virus containment measures are putting the economies and tourism back in motion, which should also benefit from the new EU Digital COVID Certificate.2 These factors are expected to outweigh the temporary production input shortages and rising costs hitting parts of the manufacturing sector.

The U.S. economy continues to recover, following a Q1 expansion of 6.4% annualized.3 Household spending is likely to be the main driver, with business investment also contributing to growth. Residential investment is expected to slow from its recent pace, and the labour market is expected to take more time for the upside effects of reopening to be fully absorbed. The Fed is expected to keep its monetary policy extremely accommodative in the coming months.

The IMF has predicted that U.S. GDP will rise above the level expected before the pandemic, at least temporarily. Forecasts are driven by four current positive factors. 1) Business finances are healthy. Most recessions in the past had financial causes. The current recession was met with firm government action that bolstered the financial system and most businesses’ balance sheets. That leaves businesses ready, willing, and able to spend once they get the signal that they can do so safely. 2) Households, particularly higher income, are sitting on savings of about US$2.8 trillion more than in Q1 than under “normal” circumstances before the pandemic. Since consumers in aggregate didn’t take on more debt, balance sheets are healthy. 3) The pandemic accelerated productivity trends, particularly telecommuting and e-commerce, that were already underway, forcing managers and consumers to adopt new technology with little notice. 4) Government spending is expected to continue to support growth. The pandemic relief bills were instrumental in keeping the economy poised for growth once vaccinations are widespread—even if not every expenditure was an effective use of money.4

The Canadian economy has already recovered nearly 80% of the jobs lost during the Covid-19 induced recession.5 The rollout of vaccines got off to a slow start in Canada but picked up in the spring when availability improved. The increase in vaccinations has enabled provinces to loosen restrictions. Jobs for lower income Canadians remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

U.S. equities ended Q2 strong, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 8.6%, despite inflation concerns and uncertainty over the future course of the Fed’s stimulus efforts. In a reversal from Q1, the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 underperformed, up 3.6% and 4.5%, respectively. Canadian equities posted gains, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 8.5%. After reaching a new all-time high at the start of the quarter, the S&P Europe 350 continued to set new records through Q2. The broad-based index finished with a 1.7% total return for the month, making it 6.7% for Q2, and 16% YTD. Switzerland, France, and the United Kingdom made the biggest positive contributions over the quarter, with each adding more than 1% to the S&P Europe 350’s returns. Asian equities rose in Q2, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 3.2%.  All Asian single-country S&P indices posted gains.

In July, we maintained our asset allocation from June for all portfolio models. The U.S. economy appears to be losing momentum again as the delta variant is spreading through the primarily unvaccinated population in America. Fiscal spending that funds local governments supports our exposure to treasuries and municipal bond exposure in the U.S. The yield curve flattened in June, and Treasuries have outperformed corporates and high yield. We continue to include gold in the asset allocation as a portfolio stabilizer during volatile equity markets.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Concerns remain about the global spread of the pandemic and an unbalanced recovery domestically. The changing picture of the economy comes with structural changes that will challenge some sectors. Investment in structures—especially office and retail buildings—is likely to lag while businesses are expected to double down on technology investment. Growing e-commerce will mean growing demand for light vehicles and medium-weight trucks for delivery services along with a demand for drivers, gasoline, and related products. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 Trading Economics. China GDP Growth Rate, National Bureau of Statistics of China. July 15, 2021.

2 European Economic Commission. July 7, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. U.S. GDP Growth Rate. June 24, 2021.

4 Deloitte Economic Outlook. 2021.

5 The Conference Board of Canada. July 6, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. June 30, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The macroeconomic environment was a key focus in May. Massive fiscal support has been the glue that has held the economy together but the re-opening contribution to growth is for the most part completed. The question of whether the change in consumer prices is transitory or a regime shift will determine the sustainability of economic growth. We have maintained our economic outlook of three months of Growth followed by Stagnation for the remainder of our twelve-month forecast horizon.

China’s economic data came in weaker than expected in April. A fall in retail sales and industrial production contributed to the weaker result. China’s urban unemployment rate edged down to 5% in May 2021, the lowest in two years.1

The Euro Area economy shrank 0.3% in the first three months of 2021. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands fell back into contraction territory, while Italy’s economy posted modest growth despite the restrictions.2 The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 2% year-on-year in May 2021, the highest since October 2018, due to the low base year. Upward pressure came from energy (13.1% versus 10.4% in April).3 Amongst the largest Euro Area economies, the highest jobless rates were recorded in Spain (15.4%), Italy (10.7%) and France (7.3%).4 Britain’s job market showed signs of recovery. In the three months to April, it stood at 4.7%, down from 5.1% at the end of 2020.5

Thanks to an extremely accommodative policy mix, the U.S. economy continues to recover, growing by an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter.6 After a decade of disappointment, U.S. productivity growth is on the rise again. Time will tell if this is a structural upshift that will be sustained. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in May 2021, the lowest since March 2020.7 The annual inflation rate in the U.S. accelerated to 5% in May of 2021 from 4.2% in April, the highest reading since August of 2008 amid low base effects from last year, rising consumer demand as the economy reopens, soaring commodity prices, supply constraints, and higher wages as companies grapple with a labor shortage. This inflation is uneven with the 20% that is COVID-19-skewed, up at a 22% annual rate over the past six months, while the other 80% that represents the part of the economy not being affected has seen its CPI rise at a 1.6% annual rate and was up 0.15% in May.8 At the June meeting, The Federal Reserve held its target range for interest rates steady at 0% to 0.25% but said it will probably increase it by the end of 2023 to 0.6%. The hike will come sooner than the Fed had expected in March, mostly because of a faster pandemic recovery, vaccination uptake, and rising domestic inflation.9

Canadian GDP is estimated to have gone down in April, the first decline since the spring of last year due to the third wave lockdown. Canada’s annual inflation rate quickened to 3.6% in May of 2021 from 3.4% in April. The Canadian dollar has appreciated to above 83 US cents, up from 78 cents in January. The Bank of Canada has attributed much of this increase to improving fundamentals like rising commodity prices.10

U.S. equities ended May on a modest note as inflation concerns dominated the headlines. The S&P 500 posted a gain of 0.7%, the S&P MidCap 400 posted 0.2% and S&P SmallCap 600 posted 2.1%. Canadian equities gained in May, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 3.4%. The S&P Europe 350 added 2.7%, making several new all-time highs. The Australian benchmark, S&P/ASX 200, closed the month up 2.3%. Most Asian single-country indices posted gains in May, including the S&P China 500 up 1.3%, and the S&P Korea BMI, up 0.7%, while the S&P Singapore BMI was down 0.6%.

In June, we maintained the asset allocation we established in May. Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once populations are vaccinated. The recent shift in the bond-equity correlation into positive territory appears to be a function of the persistency in inflation. Fiscal spending that funds local governments supports our exposure to treasuries and municipal bond exposure in the U.S. We continue to include exposure to gold as a portfolio stabilizer.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 Trading Economics. China Retail Sales, National Bureau of Statistics of China. June 9, 2021.

2 Trading Economics. Euro GDP, EUROSTAT. June 8, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. Euro Area Inflation. June 17, 2021.

4 Trading Economics. Euro Unemployment Rate. June 1, 2021.

5 Trading Economics. U.K. Unemployment Rate. June 15, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. June 4, 2021.

7 Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment Rate, Bureau of Labor Statistics. June 4, 2021.

8 Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation Rate. June 10, 2021.

9 The Federal Reserve. FOMC Statement. June 16, 2021.

10 Trading Economics. US CAD Exchange Rate, Statistics Canada. June 16, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. May 31, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

Economic activity has accelerated and is expected to remain strong into the third quarter of 2021, largely due to vaccination progress, economic re-opening, and large-scale fiscal stimulus. The U.S. is expected to be the principal driver of growth, followed closely by Europe as April restrictions are eased.

While the demand side of the global economy is heating up, the global growth boom underway is creating bottleneck pressures. Factory output has struggled to keep up with demand due to pandemic-related restrictions and shortages of intermediate inputs. Much of the year-over-year price increase can be attributed to base effects, coming off the low point for demand that occurred one year ago. The remainder of this recent inflation push is due to temporary factors such as stimulus-driven demand and supply chain restraints. The Fed and other developed global central banks have indicated that easing has reached a peak. Taper has started at the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. As we monitor the recovery, we are aware that the global labor market is slow to heal, with the U.S. still 10 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels.1 We have maintained our economic outlook of three months of Growth followed by Stagnation for the remainder of our twelve-month forecast horizon.

The Chinese economy advanced 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, boosted by strengthening domestic and global demand, strict virus containment measures, and continued fiscal and monetary support, and accelerating sharply from a 6.5% growth rate in the fourth quarter.2 China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.1% in April, compared to 5.3% in March and 6.0% in the same period last year.3

The Euro Area economy shrank 0.6% in the January-March quarter entering a double-dip recession, as several countries across the region imposed social distancing and lockdown measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands fell back into contraction territory, while France’s economy returned to growth as the government delayed the imposition of lockdown.4

The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter, following a 4.3% expansion in the previous three-month period.5 With Janet Yellen and Jay Powell heading up macroeconomic and central bank policymaking, and with U.S. rates at the lower bound and the Fed having adopted Average Inflation Targeting, 2021 is likely to bring previously unseen coordination between the fiscal arm of the federal government and the central bank. Increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and exports.6 U.S. core consumer prices rose 3.0% in April 2021, the largest annual increase since January 1996.7

The U.S. Labor Department released soft jobs data for April 2021 showing an increase of 266,000, versus estimates for a 1 million gain.8 Canada’s job recovery hit a snag in April as a third wave of lockdowns across most provinces, including Ontario, led to fresh employment losses. The country shed 207,100 jobs in April, partially erasing large gains over the previous two months. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April, from 7.5% a month earlier. Canada’s economy remains about half a million jobs shy of pre-pandemic levels.9

U.S. equities ended April on a positive note, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 5.3%. Smaller caps also posted gains, with the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P SmallCap 600 up 4.5% and 2.0%, respectively. U.S. fixed income performance was positive across the board. Canadian equities posted gains in April, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 2.4%. The S&P Europe 350 rose 2.2%, lifting its year-to-date return to 11.0%. The S&P United Kingdom outperformed, rising 4.0%, however the bulk of the European benchmark’s return was due to France, while Italy was a notable exception. Asian equities posted gains in April, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 1.8%. Most Asian single-country indices posted gains. Gold’s ability to protect against more than increases in the general price level suggests that its long-term real returns should be positive.

Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once populations are vaccinated. In May, we maintained the asset allocation that we established in April. Fiscal spending that funds local governments supports our exposure to treasuries and municipal bond exposure in the U.S. We continue to include exposure to gold as a portfolio stabilizer.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 7, 2021.

2 Trading Economics. China GDP. April 16, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. China Unemployment National Bureau of Economics. May 11, 2021.

4 Trading Economics. Europe GDP. May 18, 2021.

5 Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. April 29, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation, U.S. Bureau of Economics. May 12, 2021.

7 Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 12, 2021.

8 Trading Economics. U.S. Employment, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 7, 2021.

9 Trading Economics. Canadian Employment, Statistics Canada. May 7, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. April 30, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The tug-of-war between the virus and the global immunization effort intensified in March. The focus now will be on economic reopening. Every recession is different and the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, as has been the response from governments and central banks. Through large-scale fiscal transfers and central bank actions in many economies, households and businesses have been supported through the crisis and are in a position to emerge with their balance sheets largely intact. Our twelve-month forward outlook remains three months of Growth, followed by nine months of Stagnation, as we have seen evidence of a stronger short-term recovery rebound but a lingering longer-term impact on employment and output.

Emerging Market Asia is being buffeted by a number of forces including the policy-induced downshift in China and the sustained pandemic drag. The Chinese economy advanced 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, accelerating sharply from a 6.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.1 Exports from China soared 30.6% year-on-year to USD 241.1 billion in March 2021, slowing from a record 154.9% growth in February. Among major trade partners, exports were up to the U.S. (53.3%), the EU (45.9%), and Australia (23.1%).2

The Eurozone economy shrank by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020, following a record 12.5% expansion in the previous three-month period. Among the bloc’s largest economies, France, Italy, and the Netherlands contracted in the fourth quarter, while GDP growth in Germany and Spain slowed sharply.3 For the year 2020 as a whole, GDP fell by 6.6%.4 The U.K. remains among the global leaders in vaccine distribution with nearly half of its population having received at least one dose and daily vaccinations reaching 0.8 per 100 population in late March. The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 1.3% year-on-year in March 2021, the highest since January 2020.5

The U.S. is vaccinating its population and reopening its economy, while the fiscal response has also been more expansionary. The American Rescue Plan of $350 billion will be followed with higher tax rates, shifting interest towards more favorable asset classes including tax exempt municipal bonds. The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 4.3% in Q4 2020 but shrank 3.5% for the year.6 The U.S. dollar advanced and capped its first quarterly gain in a year, thanks to the U.S. growth dynamic versus its global peers. The Canadian economy expanded 2.3% in the last three months of 2020, following a record 8.9% growth in the previous period.7 Canada’s trade surplus narrowed to CAD1.04 billion in February of 2021 from a revised CAD1.21 billion in the previous month. Total exports decreased by 2.7% to CAD49.9 billion in February, a level 4.1% higher than that set in February 2020.8 On balance sheet policy, the Bank of Canada began its tapering at the end of April.

U.S. equities ended the first quarter of 2021 on a strong note, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 6.2%. Smaller Caps outperformed, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 and the S&P SmallCap 600 up 13.5% and 18.2% for the quarter, respectively. Canadian equities posted strong gains in Q1, with the S&P/TSX up 8.1%. International performance was also positive. The S&P Europe 350 closed the first quarter of 2021 up 8.7%. The United Kingdom was responsible for 2.5% of the total while France was the second-largest contributor with 1.5%. Asian equities had a positive start to the year, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 2.7% in the first quarter. Early-2021 trends of rising government bond yields and strong equity markets continued in March, reflecting the brighter economic outlook and increased fiscal support, particularly in the U.S. In March, the MSCI All Country World Index gained 2.5%, led by the S&P 500 (4.2%) and the S&P/TSX (3.6%). International stocks also had a modest (1.8%) gain. By contrast, the MSCI emerging market benchmark shed 1.7%.

Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once populations are vaccinated. In April, we maintained the asset allocation that we established in March. Fiscal spending that funds local governments supports our exposure to U.S. treasuries and municipal bond exposure in the U.S. We continue to include some exposure to gold as a portfolio stabilizer.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, a wealth effect from rising asset values and lower consumption, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 Trading Economics. China GDP Growth. April 16, 2021.

2 Trading Economics. China Trade: General Administration of Customs. April 13, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. Eurozone GDP Growth. March 9, 2021.

4 Trading Economics. Eurozone GDP Growth: EUROSTAT. March 9, 2021.

5 Trading Economics. Eurozone Inflation. March 16, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. U.S. GDP Growth. March 25, 2021.

7 Trading Economics. Canada GDP Growth. March 2, 2021.

8 Trading Economics. Canada Trade. April 7, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. March 31, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The macroeconomic outlook continues to improve, and the recovery may be faster than one that typically follows a business cycle recession, as vaccination rollouts accelerate, and the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package has been signed into law. This has prompted a surge in inflation expectations and commodity prices and a bond sell-off. The latest round of global manufacturing PMIs have flagged rising input costs, growing order back-logs, and longer supplier delivery times. Commodity prices have increased sharply as seen in Bloomberg’s commodity price index, up 17.5% from December 1st to March 1st.1 Oil prices hit their highest level in more than a year in February with WTI crossing the US$60 per barrel mark.2 Higher shipping costs and input shortages will test central banks’ commitments to keep interest rates low for an extended period as pent-up demand could outpace supply. At this point in the recovery, households have used lockdown savings to pay down debt – particularly credit cards – while holding onto cash for precautionary reasons, causing demand to be suppressed.

Our twelve-month forward outlook remains at three months of Growth, followed by nine months of Stagnation, as we have seen evidence of a stronger short-term recovery rebound but a lingering longer-term impact on employment and output.

In China, an updated analysis shows that non-financial debt as a percent of GDP jumped 23% to 281% in 2020.3 The debt spike is likely to be temporary. China’s economy returned to its pre-pandemic growth path in the fourth quarter of 2020, which triggered an earlier-than-expected normalization in credit policy. In the Asia Pacific region, Australia’s economy grew at a stronger-than-expected pace toward the end of last year with a 3.1% non-annualized gain.4

The Euro Area has been hampered by lockdowns. The continent has been slow to ramp up vaccinations, with only slightly more than 5% of the population in major European countries having received at least one dose.5 The annual core inflation rate in the Euro Area, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, and alcohol & tobacco, and at which the ECB looks in its policy decisions, slowed to 1.1% in February, from 1.4% in January.6 The U.K. is seeing a sluggish start to the year thanks to extended lockdowns and as the Brexit deal hit trade hard in January. A relatively speedy vaccine rollout that has seen 30% of the U.K. population receive at least one dose as of early March, should help the recovery beyond the current quarter.

The US$1.9 trillion stimulus package will add significantly to households’ purchasing power. Retail sales in the U.S. shrank 3% month-over-month in February of 2021, following an upwardly revised 7.6% jump in January.7 Housing starts reached the highest rate in 14 years in December as people moved away from the big cities due to the coronavirus pandemic but sank by 10.3% month-over-month in February.8 Prices for U.S. exports rose 1.6% from a month earlier in February 2021 while import prices increased 1.3% month-over-month.9 Canada’s fourth quarter GDP rose to an annualized 9.6%. The annual inflation rate remains low at 1.1% in February. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 1.0%, down from 1.3% in January.10

Despite a sell-off in the last week of the month, U.S. equities ended February on a positive note, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 2.8%. Smaller caps outperformed, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 and the S&P Small Cap 600 up 6.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Volatility remained high, with the VIX closing the month at 27.95. U.S. Treasury performance was negative. Canadian equities ended February strongly, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 4.4%. Despite a sharp sell-off at month end, the S&P Europe 350 finished February with a gain of 2.7%, while the S&P United Kingdom rose 1.8% in pound sterling terms. Asian equities posted gains in February, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 1.7%. Government bonds sold off in February as investors digested a confluence of factors that look set to push inflation higher and could test central banks’ commitments to keep interest rates low for an extended period.

Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once populations are vaccinated. In March, we maintained the asset allocation that we established in February. We continue to include some exposure to gold as a stabilizer in this volatile environment. Shorter duration fixed income has been maintained as the U.S. economy normalizes and inflationary pressures are rising.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, a wealth effect from rising asset values and lower consumption, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 BCOM Index. December 1 to March 1, 2021.

2 Bloomberg WTI Index. February 21, 2021.

3 Trading Economics. China Debt, BIS Statistics. March 2021.

4 Trading Economics. Australia GDP. March 3, 2021.

5 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. March 17, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. Euro Area Inflation. March 17, 2021.

7 Trading Economics. U.S. Retail Sales. March 17, 2021.

8 Trading Economics. U.S. Housing Starts. March 16, 2021.

9 Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. March 17, 2021.

10 Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. March 17, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. February 28, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The global economy has experienced a type of regime shift in response to the pandemic, and the recovery that follows will not be typical of historic recoveries following periods of recession and stagnation. Since the pandemic began, our outlook has been influenced by virus-related developments and fiscal stimulus, with consumer spending particularly sensitive to changes in these developments.  With our focus on this, we have changed our current twelve-month forward outlook to three months of Growth, followed by nine months of Stagnation, as we have seen evidence of a stronger recovery rebound since the start of the year.

Governments around the world are signaling that they will maintain fiscal support, with the U.S. administration set to lead the way by turning its attention to a multi-year infrastructure package. At the same time, major central banks are expressing a willingness to maintain accommodative stances despite a near-term inflation bounce, as they encourage an inflation overshoot and a rebound in inflation expectations. Incoming reports raise estimates of global GDP growth to 4% in 2021.1

China’s current account surplus widened to 2.0% of GDP in 2020, amounting to US$298.9 billion, compared to US$141.3 billion (1.0% of GDP) in 2019.2 On the merchandise trade front, China’s export sector was boosted by PPE and tech-related products. The steep decline in oil prices also cut China’s import bill by US$67.8 billion (or 26.5%) in 2020.3 In Western Europe, industrial activity and construction have continued to expand even as a weak service sector depresses GDP. Strong manufacturing is largely driven by the export-oriented German economy, where the manufacturing output index jumped 3.2%.4

In the U.S., the new stimulus package should boost an economy that is already off to a better-than-expected start to the year. The U.S. earnings season has been very strong, with the Q4 2020 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 at 3.9%.5 Retail sales surged 5.3% in January.6 Manufacturing output continued to climb rapidly through January and most housing indicators showed strong levels of activity.  The Canadian economy (outside of the hospitality sector) continued to show resilience through the second wave of lockdowns as households and businesses adapted to tighter restrictions and the number of new COVID-19 cases continues to trend down. Retail sales were impacted by new containment measures but have remained resilient relative to the collapse in the spring. Manufacturing has been less severely impacted by the second wave of lockdowns with sales gradually converging back towards year-ago levels.

Global central banks have effectively taken interest rates to zero, driving nearly all sovereign debt to negative real yields. With less opportunity for yield across fixed income assets – especially those of shorter duration or higher quality – investors will likely continue to shift exposure to riskier assets. The S&P 500 posted a loss for January of 1.01%. Smaller caps outperformed, with the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P SmallCap 600 up 1.5% and 6.3%, respectively. U.S. fixed income performance was mostly negative, particularly in corporates. Canadian equities posted losses, with the S&P/TSX Composite down 0.3%. The S&P Europe 350 erased its gains in the final day of January, leaving the continental benchmark with a total return of -0.8%. The S&P United Kingdom was down 0.6%. Asian equities began 2021 strongly. The S&P China 500 was up 4.8% and the S&P Hong Kong BMI was up 3.4%. Australian equities managed a gain with the S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3%, continuing a recent strong run which has seen it gain 12% over the last three months.

Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once populations are vaccinated. In February, we shifted a portion of the gold exposure into U.S. Midcap Equities to reflect the updated outlook to near-term growth. Across the Conservative, Moderate Growth, Growth, and Aggressive Growth models, we added 8%, 10%, 12%, and 14% respectively. We continue to include some exposure to gold as a stabilizer in this volatile environment. Shorter duration fixed income has been maintained as the U.S. economy normalizes and inflationary pressures are rising.

The economic reopening and the global stimulus that is underway will lead to improved household liquidity, a wealth effect from rising asset values and lower consumption, healthy consumer balance sheets, and a healing labor market. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

1 World Bank. Global Economic Prospects. January 2021.

2 Trading Economics. China Current Account. January 2021.

3 Trading Economics. China Imports. January 2021.

4 Trading Economics. Germany Exports. January 2021.

5 FactSet. Earnings Insight. February 26, 2021.

6 Trading Economics. U.S. Retail Sales. February 17, 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. January 29, 2021. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

 

 

The global economy remains dominated by the global pandemic. While the world was hoping to see a conclusion with the launch of vaccines as we entered 2021, rising COVID-19 cases and a more infectious new variant of the virus have created a renewed sense of caution. There have been over 94 million documented cases of COVID-19 and over 2 million deaths reported globally.1 The global economy has been plunged into its deepest recession since the Second World War. A combination of fiscal and monetary policy support will generate growth recovery, but we are maintaining our twelve-month forward forecast of Recession as we do not yet see the recovery overtaking the negative impact of the pandemic that currently prevails.

Growth in China decelerated to an estimated 2.3% in 2020 – the slowest pace since 1976.2 The recovery has been uneven as import growth lagged a rebound in exports, contributing to a widening current account surplus. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies have resulted in an increase in the government deficit and total debt.3 The Euro area and U.K. economies are projected to contract as they implement more expansive lockdown measures, with sectors like tourism likely to remain depressed. Euro area consumer confidence dropped 1.6 pts to -15.5 in January, which left the survey low by historical standards.4

The U.S. economy is stronger than most other global economies while it continues to experience an uneven recovery. The fall in U.S. activity in the first half of 2020 was nearly three times as large as the peak decline during the global financial crisis, underscoring the depth of the recession.5 Substantial fiscal support to household incomes – far exceeding similar measures delivered during the global financial crisis – contributed to a robust initial rebound in the third quarter of 2020, which was subsequently cut short by a broad resurgence of the pandemic. In Canada, COVID-19-related metrics have been improving and vaccines continue to be rolled out. The Bank of Canada kept all aspects of monetary policy unchanged in January, including the policy rate (0.25%), C$4 billion weekly QE program, and the outcome-based forward guidance.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty of an election year, U.S. equities ended the year with the S&P 500 posting a gain of 18.4% for 2020. Smaller caps reversed course by outperforming in Q4, with the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 up 13.7% and 11.3% for the year, respectively. Canadian equities ended the year with modest gains, with the S&P/TSX Composite up 5.6% for 2020. European equities finished 2020 down 2.8% thanks to the United Kingdom, down 12.9% after agreeing to “Brexit”. The S&P Europe 350’s total return would have been a 2% gain were it not for the negative contribution of British stocks. The Euro gained 6% versus sterling and 8% vs the US Dollar during 2020. Asian equities recovered after being devastated by COVID-19 in March, with the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 20% for the year. All Asian single-country indices posted gains, with Korea and Taiwan in the lead. Rates on both sides of the Atlantic fell, pushing major sovereign yields further into negative territory across the Eurozone. European bonds outperformed equities, with risker credits top of the performance charts. U.K. bonds also performed well, more in local terms than euros.

In January, we maintained the asset allocation that was established in December for all models. Within Equities, we eliminated our position in U.S. MidCap Equities in the Growth and Aggressive Growth models and established a position in Australian Equities to replace it as the COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out there quickly, the Government and Reserve Bank are pumping more stimulus into the economy, and the hardest-hit sectors are making a recovery. Equity exposure across all models reflects our view that markets are looking through the uncertainty of the pandemic and towards the resumption of more normal life once the population is vaccinated. We continue to favor shorter duration fixed income. With interest rates low or negative, we have maintained exposure to gold.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis that necessitates a coordinated global response. It is likely to steepen the slowdown in potential growth, undermining prospects for labor productivity and poverty reduction. Limiting the spread of the virus, providing relief for vulnerable populations, and overcoming vaccine-related challenges are immediate priorities. Only when the pandemic is effectively managed in all countries will individual countries be safe from resurgence, allowing global growth outcomes to improve materially. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

 

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

 

Johns Hopkins University. National Public Health Agencies. January 18, 2021.

Trading Economics. China GDP. December 2020.

The World Bank. 2021 Global Economic Prospects. January 2021 (figures 1.10.C and 1.10.D).

Trading Economics. Euro Consumer Confidence. January 21, 2021.

Trading Economics. U.S. GDP Growth Rate. January 2021.

 

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. December 31, 2020. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.