U.S. protectionism has reintroduced frictions that decades of trade integration had reduced as tariffs and counter tariffs reduce trade, disrupt supply chains, and weigh on profit margins and investment in the most exposed sectors. Population aging is weighing on labour supply, business succession, and public finances. Highly indebted governments must find the resources to fund […]
Tariffs are back in play. Canadians are fighting a trade and an economic war, supported by a majority, to defend their sovereignty against the U.S. Canada has placed counter-tariffs on several hundred products made in the U.S. as retaliation for a new set of tariffs imposed on Canada by the Trump White House. A selloff […]
Deepening conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging and Treasury yields climbing to levels that could soon spill over into the stock market and the broader economy. Simultaneously, a new round of U.S. tariff threats is threatening the outlook. For Canada, the tariff impact will depend on the resilience of companies, the […]
The U.S., China, Europe, and an assertive group of middle powers (Canada) are pursuing distinct models of economic security. Politics, geopolitics, and economic security policy now shape growth and inflation directly, increasing dispersion across countries, sectors, and firms while continuing to raise market and macro volatility. These forces are testing economic resilience, as economies cope […]
The sharp oil supply shock created by the conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and rising uncertainty have trimmed roughly 30 basis points from global growth expectations compared to prior to the conflict. In addition, the closure has blocked roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade with nitrogen and phosphate supply the […]
Events in the Middle East have materially changed the near-term economic and financial outlook. Economies’ sensitivities to the conflict and its knock-on effects differ. Many of the largest economies in Asia-Pacific are heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East. The impact on an economy will also be determined by a range of factors, […]
The Middle East conflict that erupted at the end of February saw an immediate reaction from asset prices in March. Oil prices climbed, the dollar rallied, and yields softened. Gold bounced, up almost 5% across the first two trading sessions. Historically gold has responded positively when oil prices rise in response to a demand surge […]
As the U.S. economy adjusts to global tariffs, disruption and uncertainty impact the entire globe. The U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th put 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil at risk, amounting to 3.5% of global supply. A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and accounts for 20% of […]
The United States is reliant on global capital markets to fund its budget deficits and relies on the premise that the U.S. is a predictable and reliable steward of the world’s financial system. U.S. efforts to rewrite the rules of international trade, to pressure allies, and to treat economic relationships as instruments of coercion all […]
In December, the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment led to a weaker U.S. dollar and marginally lower interest rates. This environment has resulted in a broader push for portfolio diversification amid lacklustre bond returns and concerns of volatility in equity markets. Investment demand for gold has surged across all regions, while central banks continued their buying […]