For decades, Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia have trusted America’s “superpower stack”—defence treaties, trade deals, nuclear weapons, the dollar banking system—because it is mutually beneficial. The Trump overhaul of the global economy with sweeping tariffs has led to concern over inflation and growth. Now, global consumer spending has slowed outside of China due to the […]
U.S. trade policy represents a clear and significant risk to our macro-economic forecast. Open trade between Canada and the United States has benefitted both countries, increasing efficiency, spurring investment, boosting productivity, and raising standards of living. The imposition of tariffs will kick this into reverse. Tariffs on Canadian goods would lead to higher gas and […]
In delivering the first international speech of his second mandate by video from the White House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, United States President Donald Trump reiterated his tariff threats against Canada and the European Union while also warning other countries of potential tariffs if products are made outside of the U.S.1 The President […]
The U.S. is set to be the top performer among Group of Seven countries, according to International Monetary Fund projections, while world GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.1 Geopolitical tensions are weighing on the global economy while high public debt and defence budgets are crimping governments’ ability to spend. U.S. consumer […]
Trump’s re-election on November 5th poses a complex scenario for the U.S. and global markets. The prospect of an escalation of trade wars is likely to depress corporate investment while lowering real household disposable income, as tariffs are passed on to the consumer in the form of rising prices. It is anticipated that fiscal spending […]
The global outlook will be shaped largely by fiscal and monetary choices, the intensity of geoeconomic fragmentation forces, and the ability of governments to implement long-overdue structural reforms. Notable revisions have taken place at the International Monetary Fund, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies, […]
The world is changing rapidly and in ways that can be hard to predict. The frequency of unexpected political and economic shocks has accelerated. Heightened geopolitical risks favour assets that are considered safe havens such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, Treasuries, and gold. The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. In September we […]
Global economies are experiencing synchronised stimulus. In June the European Central Bank reduced rates for the first time since before the Covid-19 pandemic. In July policymakers at the Bank of England voted to cut rates. Other central banks, ranging from those in Canada and Chile to Denmark, are also in on the action with the […]
The FOMC met on June 11th, holding interest rates unchanged and maintaining the 2024 outlook of a 4.0% unemployment rate while expecting inflation to decline to 2.6% at year-end 2024 and to be 2.3% at year-end 2025. The U.S. market has continued to support a delaying Fed, as the economy and profits continue to grow, […]
Global economic momentum continues to improve with mixed results among the G7. The U.S. FOMC met in early June, focusing on inflation that has remained higher than target, supporting the position to leave rates unchanged. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, however, began rate-cut cycles in June; the first G7 central banks to […]