The U.S., China, Europe, and an assertive group of middle powers (Canada) are pursuing distinct models of economic security. Politics, geopolitics, and economic security policy now shape growth and inflation directly, increasing dispersion across countries, sectors, and firms while continuing to raise market and macro volatility. These forces are testing economic resilience, as economies cope […]
The sharp oil supply shock created by the conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and rising uncertainty have trimmed roughly 30 basis points from global growth expectations compared to prior to the conflict. In addition, the closure has blocked roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade with nitrogen and phosphate supply the […]
Events in the Middle East have materially changed the near-term economic and financial outlook. Economies’ sensitivities to the conflict and its knock-on effects differ. Many of the largest economies in Asia-Pacific are heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East. The impact on an economy will also be determined by a range of factors, […]
The Middle East conflict that erupted at the end of February saw an immediate reaction from asset prices in March. Oil prices climbed, the dollar rallied, and yields softened. Gold bounced, up almost 5% across the first two trading sessions. Historically gold has responded positively when oil prices rise in response to a demand surge […]
As the U.S. economy adjusts to global tariffs, disruption and uncertainty impact the entire globe. The U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th put 3.3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil at risk, amounting to 3.5% of global supply. A disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and accounts for 20% of […]
The United States is reliant on global capital markets to fund its budget deficits and relies on the premise that the U.S. is a predictable and reliable steward of the world’s financial system. U.S. efforts to rewrite the rules of international trade, to pressure allies, and to treat economic relationships as instruments of coercion all […]
In December, the geopolitical and geoeconomic environment led to a weaker U.S. dollar and marginally lower interest rates. This environment has resulted in a broader push for portfolio diversification amid lacklustre bond returns and concerns of volatility in equity markets. Investment demand for gold has surged across all regions, while central banks continued their buying […]
Optimism surrounding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China and anticipation of the Fed’s recent rate cut propelled the U.S. stock market through the month, while Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks dampened the run. On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed a bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The 43-day […]
Sweeping tariffs across a wide-ranging group of trading partners threaten to hobble global growth and push up prices for consumers and businesses. The effective tariff rate in the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly a century. Households are reining in spending given the prospect for higher prices, while businesses are lowering […]
The U.S. President’s push to redesign the global economic order in favor of the U.S. is shaking a foundation of post-World War II supremacy: the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. That dominance helps the U.S. to run gaping budget deficits and enables U.S. consumers to spend more than they make—all funded by overseas […]