2021 Portfolio Updates
December 2021December 26, 2021 - 10:00 am
2020 Portfolio Updates
- December 2020December 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
November 2020November 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
October 2020October 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
September 2020September 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
August 2020August 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
July 2020July 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
June 2020June 26, 2020 - 10:00 am
May 2020May 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
April 2020April 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
March 2020March 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
February 2020February 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
January 2020January 27, 2020 - 10:00 am
2019 Portfolio Updates
- December 2019December 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- November 2019November 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- October 2019October 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- September 2019September 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- August 2019August 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- July 2019July 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- June 2019June 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- May 2019May 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- April 2019April 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- March 2019March 27, 2019 - 10:00 am
- February 2019March 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
- January 2019February 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
2018 Portfolio Updates
- December 2018January 1, 2019 - 10:00 am
- November 2018December 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- October 2018November 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- September 2018October 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- August 2018September 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- July 2018August 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- June 2018July 1, 2018 - 10:24 am
- May 2018June 1, 2018 - 10:37 am
- April 2018May 1, 2018 - 10:39 am
- March 2018April 1, 2018 - 10:48 am
- February 2018March 1, 2018 - 10:49 am
- January 2018February 1, 2018 - 10:51 am
2017 Portfolio Updates
- December 2017January 1, 2018 - 10:00 am
- November 2017December 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- October 2017November 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- September 2017October 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- August 2017September 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- July 2017August 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- June 2017July 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- May 2017June 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- April 2017May 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- March 2017April 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- February 2017March 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
- January 2017February 1, 2017 - 10:00 am
Q2 2019 Outlook
Section 1. Q2 2019 Outlook Multiple Factors Raise the Prospect of Risk Asset Volatility As we look forward to the second quarter of 2019, we expect to experience greater volatility. Capital around the world moves to markets where it sees the greatest opportunity and to escape other relatively riskier international environments. The U.S. is […]
March 2019
Progress on U.S./China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish rhetoric regarding further interest rate hikes have not convinced us to change our forward outlook that expects the U.S. economy to experience stagnation over the next twelve months. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with Brexit’s outcome uncertain, upcoming elections in the European Union, and the […]
February 2019
Geopolitical risks are expected to dominate global asset class performance over the coming months. Consideration of ongoing trade tensions and the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown have led us to revise our forward outlook to reflect our view that the U.S. economy will experience stagnation over the next twelve months. While still undergoing revisions, […]
January 2019
As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker corporate earnings. In the short-term, the […]
Q1 2019 Outlook
Section 1. Q1 2019 Outlook As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker […]
December 2018
Recent reasons to hope for a more stable global economy in 2019 are contending with reasons to worry. Hope has come from the temporary U.S./China tariff truce and an oil supply shock that will positively impact global consumer spending next quarter. Concern remains as global geopolitical risks escalate, and the fading benefit of fiscal stimulus […]
November 2018
The global economy has delivered above-trend growth and a modest rise in inflation this year. This trend is expected to end, as increasing dependence on U.S. demand should not be capable of carrying the rest of the world. We expect that the combination of the escalating trade dispute with China and monetary tightening by the […]
October 2018
In October, we evolved our twelve-month forward-looking outlook to reflect a six-month period of Growth, followed by a six-month period of Inflation. The global economy remains on track for another year of solid growth, likely to be just under 4%, as we enter the fourth quarter of 2018. However, domestic factors are causing the overall […]
Q4 2018 Outlook
Section 1. Q4 2018 Outlook Economies Diverge and Divisive Politics Dominate A year ago, global economies were enjoying synchronized growth. Growth increased in every large economy during 2017, except Britain, and even in most emerging economies. Global trade was surging with the U.S. booming and China’s deflation under control. While President Trump’s tax cuts […]
September 2018
In September, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. During 2018, global growth appears to have peaked at 3.8% after picking up steam through the second half of last year1. We expect further […]
August 2018
In August, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointment remains. Tariffs generate what economists call […]
July 2018
In July, we updated our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are now factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointments has increased. The WTO issued a […]
June 2018
In June we carried the outlook forward from May with Growth in the first half of the twelve-month time horizon heading toward Inflation in the back half. World trade weakened slightly in Q1 2018 to 4.4% compared to 4.7% in 2017¹. The global economy was handed a curve ball in May as the U.S. unilaterally […]
May 2018
In May, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. The global economy is running at its fastest pace since the very early days of the current economic recovery. The IMF upgraded its outlook for 2018 and 2019, calling for the world economy to achieve […]
April 2018
In April we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Global momentum remains strong as the IMF forecasts 3.9% growth this year and next, the fastest since 2011 thanks to increasing investment and trade. The strength of global demand is leading to a significant increase […]
March 2018
In March, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Fundamentals (job growth, corporate profits, corporate and consumer confidence) remain very strong globally for now even as manufacturing downshifts. The commitment by President Trump to impose tariffs on China would be the main driver of […]
February 2018
In February, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. The data coming in from 2017 confirms that the synchronized world economic recovery also contributed to global EPS growth across most markets in 2017. China continues to grow but a slowdown is underway, resulting from policy tightening as the authorities became more concerned […]
January 2018
In January, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. Global growth has become more trend line in 2018, led by global demand and a revival in commodity prices, allowing most policymakers the flexibility to pursue much-needed reforms without stifling growth. A few developed market central banks are facing conflicting signals as economic […]
December 2017
In December, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting to Stagnation for the following nine months as we see the initial impact of U.S. tax reform on consumer and business behavior contributing to short-term U.S. growth. Global growth is expected to return to its trend rate of 3.7% in 2018 as […]
November 2017
In November, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. Synchronous global growth is expected to remain in place for 2017. Contributions to this growth include inflation standing below most central banks’ 2% objective, G3 capital goods orders climbing at the fastest pace since […]
October 2017
In October, we changed our outlook to Growth for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. The economic expansion in advanced economies seems set to continue for the next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching full employment, inflation has remained below […]
Q3 2017 Report
Market Priced Volatility and Real-World Uncertainty Economic expansion in advanced economies is expected to continue into next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. The U.S. Fed is expected to continue slowly unwinding QE while raising rates, and the ECB is likely to begin to taper its asset purchases during 2018. Prospects for […]
September 2017
In September, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The global economy continues to chug along with the July IMF forecast for global economic growth of 3.5% for 2017 and 3.6% for 2018 looking attainable¹. All 46 countries monitored by the OECD are on a growth track this year for the […]
August 2017
In August, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. This outlook is centered on the United States. The pickup in global growth remains on track, a departure from years past when estimates slid lower as the year progressed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global output to grow by 3.5% in […]