Portfolio Updates

The Outlook for Interest Rates, the Economy and Inflation in the U.S. and Among the Other Major World Economies The U.S. Fed will probably start shrinking its balance sheet in September and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases in the first half of 2018. What is the outlook for interest rates, the […]

In June, we continued with our global Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Although growth was lower than expected in Q1 in several G7 economies, a slow expansion is now well established across the board. That said, some of these economies have made a much better recovery from the crisis than others. The European […]

In May, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The outlook for the world economy is improving and world trade has picked up. Manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are improving and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. The recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum after being […]

In April, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. After a lackluster showing in 2016, economic activity in emerging and developing economies is projected by the International Monetary Fund to pick up the pace in 2017 and 2018. There is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes, however. Persistent structural problems […]

When does inflation begin to change investment decisions? During the first quarter of 2017 we removed U.S. inflation from our outlook and reverted to Stagnation for all global economies for the twelve-month forward forecast. Looking to the future, our analysis suggests that ongoing monetary accommodation is unlikely to have significant inflationary consequences, if inflation expectations […]

In March, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Expectations for the world economy in 2017 are relatively unchanged from last month. The U.S. economy is expected to stagnate as Trump fiscal stimulus is not expected until 2018. Political clouds on the horizon include the first round of the French […]

In February, we adjusted our twelve-month forward outlook to remove Inflation for the U.S. and reverted to Stagnation across all global economies. Last year, markets had to digest Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) and the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. This year, markets will focus on three […]

In January, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook to reflect the inflationary environment that is expected to result from the new regime in the U.S. while the rest of the world continues to struggle with stagnation. While the International Monetary Fund projects that global GDP in 2017 will improve to 3.4% from 3.1%, there is […]

2021 Portfolio Updates

2020 Portfolio Updates

2019 Portfolio Updates

2018 Portfolio Updates

2017 Portfolio Updates