Progress on U.S./China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish rhetoric regarding further interest rate hikes have not convinced us to change our forward outlook that expects the U.S. economy to experience stagnation over the next twelve months. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with Brexit’s outcome uncertain, upcoming elections in the European Union, and the […]
Geopolitical risks are expected to dominate global asset class performance over the coming months. Consideration of ongoing trade tensions and the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown have led us to revise our forward outlook to reflect our view that the U.S. economy will experience stagnation over the next twelve months. While still undergoing revisions, […]
As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker corporate earnings. In the short-term, the […]
Section 1. Q1 2019 Outlook As we enter 2019, there is a heightened focus on downside risks both domestically and globally in the markets and in the broader economy. A negative feedback loop has emerged that is centered in the U.S., linking bad policy choices to falling asset prices, tighter financial conditions, and weaker […]
Recent reasons to hope for a more stable global economy in 2019 are contending with reasons to worry. Hope has come from the temporary U.S./China tariff truce and an oil supply shock that will positively impact global consumer spending next quarter. Concern remains as global geopolitical risks escalate, and the fading benefit of fiscal stimulus […]
The global economy has delivered above-trend growth and a modest rise in inflation this year. This trend is expected to end, as increasing dependence on U.S. demand should not be capable of carrying the rest of the world. We expect that the combination of the escalating trade dispute with China and monetary tightening by the […]
In October, we evolved our twelve-month forward-looking outlook to reflect a six-month period of Growth, followed by a six-month period of Inflation. The global economy remains on track for another year of solid growth, likely to be just under 4%, as we enter the fourth quarter of 2018. However, domestic factors are causing the overall […]
Section 1. Q4 2018 Outlook Economies Diverge and Divisive Politics Dominate A year ago, global economies were enjoying synchronized growth. Growth increased in every large economy during 2017, except Britain, and even in most emerging economies. Global trade was surging with the U.S. booming and China’s deflation under control. While President Trump’s tax cuts […]
In September, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. During 2018, global growth appears to have peaked at 3.8% after picking up steam through the second half of last year1. We expect further […]
In August, we maintained our outlook to reflect the impact of the escalating global trade wars. We are currently factoring in a six-month period of Stagnation followed by six months of Inflation. While the baseline forecast for the global economy continues for 2018 and 2019, the potential for disappointment remains. Tariffs generate what economists call […]