Section 1: Q4 2020 Outlook Teetering Between Recovery and Chaos COVID-19 has depressed economic activity around the world. Monetary and fiscal responses from governments and central banks in both developed and emerging economies since March are without precedent, far surpassing actions taken during the global financial crisis. We are currently living in a world […]
The global pandemic-induced GDP collapse has led to higher debt service burdens and lower ability to repay, resulting in an increase in non-performing loans and credit risk. We are now in a twilight zone of partial lockdowns. Fearful of rebellion, and of snuffing out signs of economic recovery, governments are opting for a hodge-podge of […]
The initial pick-up in economic activity that we saw in June began to fade in July as households and firms remained in cautious mode, particularly with new virus cases rising in some countries. Monetary policy is less effective as global interest rates are at their lowest levels, leaving central banks with little ammunition. Central banks […]
The “golden era” of globalization is behind us. A drive towards de-globalization, that began for many nations following the Global Financial Crisis, has intensified as the current pandemic has exposed some of the vulnerabilities from global supply chains. The risk is that the current recession becomes a global depression. Depressions entail a prolonged period of […]
Section 1: Q3 2020 Outlook A Crisis Like No Other: Recovery in A Changed World The global economy is in its worst downturn since the 1930s. For the first time, all regions are projected to experience negative growth in 2020. There are, however, substantial differences across individual economies, reflecting the evolution of the pandemic […]
The role of the financial industry as an allocator and distributor of capital to the economy is critical to the evolution of the current pandemic. The current health crisis has morphed into an economic crisis, which has morphed into a financial crisis. While advances in testing and contact tracing will help, risk of a second […]
The economic impact of the extraordinary measures taken by governments all around the world to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve is highly uncertain. The outcome will depend on the evolution of the virus and the intensity and efficacy of containment efforts. Economic data continue to show severe economic disruptions associated with COVID-19 and only limited […]
The economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis may pale in comparison to the human cost. Many people fear for their own health and that of their loved ones. As such, there is a “real” element to the fear factor. Measures to contain the virus have upended supply chains and financial markets and have weighed on […]
Section 1: Q2 2020 Outlook Global Risk: The World Is Heading for the Sharpest and Deepest Global Slowdown Since WW2 The economic cost of the COVID-19 crisis may pale in comparison to the human cost. Many people fear for their own health and that of their loved ones. As such, there is a “real” […]
A global recession in 2020 is all but confirmed as nations shut down economic activity to limit the spread of COVID-19. The virus is unique in that it is a demand shock and supply shock, and also a negative wealth, oil price, and credit shock. There will be a wide range of subsequent effects. We […]