The global economy has experienced a type of regime shift in response to the pandemic, and the recovery that follows will not be typical of historic recoveries following periods of recession and stagnation. Since the pandemic began, our outlook has been influenced by virus-related developments and fiscal stimulus, with consumer spending particularly sensitive to changes […]
The global economy remains dominated by the global pandemic. While the world was hoping to see a conclusion with the launch of vaccines as we entered 2021, rising COVID-19 cases and a more infectious new variant of the virus have created a renewed sense of caution. There have been over 94 million documented cases of […]
Section 1: Q1 2021 Outlook We Expect an Uneven Recovery and a Prolonged Global Recession While the world was hoping to see the conclusion of the global pandemic as we entered 2021, instead, we find ourselves more in the middle of the cycle. The pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession […]
COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year as governments shut down large segments of their economies to slow the spread of the virus. There are some signs of recovery as the latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for September showed that real […]
Global growth momentum continued into October, as industrial activity and trade readings from the U.S., China, and Japan pointed upward. Good news regarding various vaccine trials increased confidence that the pandemic will be less of a drag by Q2 2021. In the near term however, downward revisions to growth reflect recent restrictions on activity across […]
Today, COVID-19 is no longer the unknown but the new normal and is spreading again in the U.S. and Europe. The combination of caution and restrictions on travel and hospitality continue to impede the recovery. The reopening of economies that began in May will contribute to GDP recovery, but a second wave of virus infections have […]
Section 1: Q4 2020 Outlook Teetering Between Recovery and Chaos COVID-19 has depressed economic activity around the world. Monetary and fiscal responses from governments and central banks in both developed and emerging economies since March are without precedent, far surpassing actions taken during the global financial crisis. We are currently living in a world […]
The global pandemic-induced GDP collapse has led to higher debt service burdens and lower ability to repay, resulting in an increase in non-performing loans and credit risk. We are now in a twilight zone of partial lockdowns. Fearful of rebellion, and of snuffing out signs of economic recovery, governments are opting for a hodge-podge of […]
The initial pick-up in economic activity that we saw in June began to fade in July as households and firms remained in cautious mode, particularly with new virus cases rising in some countries. Monetary policy is less effective as global interest rates are at their lowest levels, leaving central banks with little ammunition. Central banks […]
The “golden era” of globalization is behind us. A drive towards de-globalization, that began for many nations following the Global Financial Crisis, has intensified as the current pandemic has exposed some of the vulnerabilities from global supply chains. The risk is that the current recession becomes a global depression. Depressions entail a prolonged period of […]