Portfolio Updates

The global economy continues to slow as we near the end of 2022. The last time that the world experienced a central bank confluence of growth-restricting policies was in 1982, when a global recession was induced. There is good reason to expect the same in 2023. The weak points include China with Covid policies that […]

The Fed’s continuation of rate hikes in September to fight rising inflation, economic growth and geopolitical risk concerns, and a soaring US dollar combined to drive losses across all asset classes in Q3.   During past inflationary environments, inflation came in waves. This time will be no different. As supply induced inflation begins to decline over […]

On the heels of the pandemic, the world is now having to deal with spillovers from Russia’s war, which is threatening a recession not only in Europe but across the developed world, and China’s ad hoc lockdowns. Corresponding supply shocks are fueling inflation across the globe, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy further into […]

Escalating geopolitical tensions related to uncertainty around the war in Ukraine and prolonged supply chain disruptions have shifted stagflation concerns towards recession, as the first quarter of 2022 in in U.S. experienced negative growth. The emergence of highly transmissible COVID-19 variants also continues to risk derailing the global economic recovery. Central banks are weighing aggressive […]

The recent inflation surge is generating two challenges to the global expansion. The immediate one comes from a squeeze in household purchasing power, concentrated in Europe and low-income commodity importing nations. If growth stalls in the second half of the year, it will likely have negative repercussions for both growth and inflation. If growth proves […]

Geopolitical escalation in February has materially increased the risk of further aggravating the energy and commodity crisis developing over the past 2 years. After weeks of rising tensions, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. The U.S., in cooperation with its Western allies, has responded by imposing sanctions against Russia, prompting significant […]

The demand recovery following 2020’s historic pandemic recession has been concentrated in goods and has pushed supply chains to their limits, extending delivery times to records and boosting prices and volatility in growth and inflation. Supply shortages are raising current inflation, while secular forces that alter the balance of supply and demand and sustain high […]

Market volatility returned in September as China’s Evergrande debt crisis, the global prospect for higher taxes, U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty, and upcoming tapering by the Federal Reserve elevated risk. With these events considered, our outlook continues to expect the global recovery to continue. In September we maintained our twelve-month forward forecast of Growth (U.S. GDP […]

The COVID-19 pandemic appears to be less dramatic and lethal than some historic plagues and vaccinations will limit impact. Unfortunately, after substantial progress, the world faces a new enemy in the Delta variant. This highly contagious form of the virus devastated the subcontinent in spring and has now spread to almost 100 countries including the […]

The macroeconomic environment was a key focus in May. Massive fiscal support has been the glue that has held the economy together but the re-opening contribution to growth is for the most part completed. The question of whether the change in consumer prices is transitory or a regime shift will determine the sustainability of economic […]