Portfolio Updates

In delivering the first international speech of his second mandate by video from the White House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, United States President Donald Trump reiterated his tariff threats against Canada and the European Union while also warning other countries of potential tariffs if products are made outside of the U.S.1 The President […]

Trump’s re-election on November 5th poses a complex scenario for the U.S. and global markets. The prospect of an escalation of trade wars is likely to depress corporate investment while lowering real household disposable income, as tariffs are passed on to the consumer in the form of rising prices.  It is anticipated that fiscal spending […]

The world is changing rapidly and in ways that can be hard to predict. The frequency of unexpected political and economic shocks has accelerated. Heightened geopolitical risks favour assets that are considered safe havens such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, Treasuries, and gold. The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. In September we […]

The FOMC met on June 11th, holding interest rates unchanged and maintaining the 2024 outlook of a 4.0% unemployment rate while expecting inflation to decline to 2.6% at year-end 2024 and to be 2.3% at year-end 2025. The U.S. market has continued to support a delaying Fed, as the economy and profits continue to grow, […]

The global economy has avoided a recession in the face of supply-chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic, a Russian-initiated war on Ukraine that triggered a global energy and food crisis, and a surge in inflation, followed by a globally synchronized monetary policy tightening. It remains resilient, with growth holding steady as inflation returns […]

As anticipated, the FOMC voted in March to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. This was the fifth consecutive stand pat decision, all of which have been unanimous. Broadening global economic activity should help broaden investment performance, which has been narrowly concentrated in U.S. mega-cap equities. Bull […]

Global fourth-quarter data has provided evidence that the recovery remains on solid footing, pointing to continued, but slower growth in the first three months of 2024. In the U.S., layoffs remain low, and job growth has held steady. Cooling inflation has meant that wages are now rising faster than prices. In January we maintained our […]

Global economies, overall, have performed better than expected in 2023 in the face of high levels of debt, less than accommodative monetary policy, a growing number of geopolitical tensions, and an unstable Chinese economy present challenge. Central bank hiking and cutting cycles continue around the globe and we expect that the historical pattern of rates […]

Reassured by the resilience in macro data, and frustrated that inflation isn’t falling fast enough, major central banks have continued with monetary tightening. The result has been eroding purchasing power, a rising cost of living, and persistent inflationary pressures. For those facing mortgage term renewals, the higher rates remove purchasing power from their discretionary budget. […]

The four-decade period of stable inflation and interest rates has ended, and a new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out. As the global economy continues to recover from the energy crisis, we continue to expect moderate global growth in 2023-24, with a drag from the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening […]

For over a year, the global economy has avoided recession. Beneath the surface however, imbalances can be seen in the latest upturn. Much of the gain experienced globally owes to a reopening surge in China. Regional imbalances outside of China as well as sectoral imbalances have emerged as the goods-producing sector stalled last quarter after […]

Recent data suggest that the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter and payroll employment growth robust, while core inflation remained too high for comfort. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10th has further contributed to our view that […]