Portfolio Updates

As anticipated, the FOMC voted in March to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. This was the fifth consecutive stand pat decision, all of which have been unanimous. Broadening global economic activity should help broaden investment performance, which has been narrowly concentrated in U.S. mega-cap equities. Bull […]

Global fourth-quarter data has provided evidence that the recovery remains on solid footing, pointing to continued, but slower growth in the first three months of 2024. In the U.S., layoffs remain low, and job growth has held steady. Cooling inflation has meant that wages are now rising faster than prices. In January we maintained our […]

Global economies, overall, have performed better than expected in 2023 in the face of high levels of debt, less than accommodative monetary policy, a growing number of geopolitical tensions, and an unstable Chinese economy present challenge. Central bank hiking and cutting cycles continue around the globe and we expect that the historical pattern of rates […]

Reassured by the resilience in macro data, and frustrated that inflation isn’t falling fast enough, major central banks have continued with monetary tightening. The result has been eroding purchasing power, a rising cost of living, and persistent inflationary pressures. For those facing mortgage term renewals, the higher rates remove purchasing power from their discretionary budget. […]

The four-decade period of stable inflation and interest rates has ended, and a new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out. As the global economy continues to recover from the energy crisis, we continue to expect moderate global growth in 2023-24, with a drag from the cumulative impact of monetary policy tightening […]

For over a year, the global economy has avoided recession. Beneath the surface however, imbalances can be seen in the latest upturn. Much of the gain experienced globally owes to a reopening surge in China. Regional imbalances outside of China as well as sectoral imbalances have emerged as the goods-producing sector stalled last quarter after […]

Recent data suggest that the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter and payroll employment growth robust, while core inflation remained too high for comfort. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10th has further contributed to our view that […]

The global expansion has downshifted to a slower pace but remains resilient. We remain in the most aggressive and synchronized monetary tightening cycle in 40 years. Underlying inflation persists at multiple %age points above targets and central banks remain in tightening mode. In response to the U.S. CPI update for October, the 10-year-2-year yield spread […]

Despite sub-par global economy GDP growth this year, uncertainty around central bank policy paths continues to dominate markets. In September, Developed Markets continued to tighten, with their central banks (outside Japan) moving in unison with rate hikes, accompanied by guidance for further tightening ahead. This is a response to two closely related developments. First, central […]

The World Bank and the OECD have slashed their global growth expectations, citing the surge in energy and food prices, along with disruptions from the Ukrainian war and ongoing pandemic restrictions in China.1 While businesses are grappling with labor shortages and surging wage growth, consumer demand remains strong, and the persistence of very high price […]

The economic recovery from the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic continues and multiple macro risks persist. Inflation due to supply shortages as well as fiscal spending, government debt, more hawkish central banks, and an uncertain labour market are afflicting developed economies around the world. The risk of a sharp slowdown in the coming months […]