Section 1: Q1 2020 Outlook Current Risks of a Reserve Currency Trap The U.S. economy represents 33% of the global economy, but its spill-over effects on the rest of the world are amplified by the dominant role of the US dollar (USD) in international payments, debt issuance, and FX reserves.i The trust and confidence […]
As uncertainty revs up, global GDP is on track to rise 3% in 2019, the slowest pace in a decade.1 Global trade volumes fell in 2019 for the first time since the Great Recession, reflecting roller coaster U.S.-China trade negotiations, a lack of progress on Brexit, and political unrest in Hong Kong and some Latin […]
Global growth continues to be weak, with the global economy impacted by the U.S.-China trade war on the one hand, and global monetary easing on the other. The trade standoff has taken a toll on business confidence, industrial production, and trade flows. It has weighed heavily on global manufacturing and hit export-oriented economies, including China, […]
Having already slowed from 4% to 3%, world GDP growth is set to take another leg down as growth in advanced economies slows to its weakest pace since 2012.1 Under the cloud of protectionism, global trade flows, which have been decelerating due to tariffs, are now outright contracting on a year-on-year basis. As a result, […]
Section 1: Q4 2019 Outlook Globalization Has Changed the Global Economy. Are We Now in a Period of De-Globalization? Our investment approach is focused on the expected behavior of asset classes in various economic environments. Our research shows that in addition to five broad economic environments – Growth, Stagnation, Inflation, Recession and Chaos – […]
While geopolitical developments have always played a role in economies and markets, their scale and impact has been steadily rising since the 2008 financial crisis. Against a hostile trade backdrop, the global economy is losing momentum. Forecasts for world GDP growth this year have fallen to 3.2% from the 3.9% economists expected a year ago.1 […]
The pace of global growth continues to slow this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. The 1% decline in global growth over the past year in conjunction with the trade war and a number of geopolitical conflicts raises the risk of recession as the rules-based approach to governing international trade […]
The pace of global growth is slowing this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. Data points to the global economy expanding by 3.3% this year, slower than 2018’s 3.6% pace, with trade volumes declining and business sentiment deteriorating. 1 Central bank actions and intentions have boosted both equity and bond markets […]
Section 1: Q3 2019 Outlook The Danger of Politicizing the Central Bank As we enter the third quarter of 2019, we review recent global monetary policy and question how it has changed the traditional ways that we use it to detect risk in markets and the global economy. The global economy is expected to […]
Our outlook is focused on tension between politics, policy and the positioning of the corporate sector. The world economy remains vulnerable to the U.S – China power play. If tariffs persist or are ramped up further, already weak world trade volumes will struggle to gain traction. In addition, rising political conflict (Brexit and Italy) and […]