Section 1: Q4 2019 Outlook Globalization Has Changed the Global Economy. Are We Now in a Period of De-Globalization? Our investment approach is focused on the expected behavior of asset classes in various economic environments. Our research shows that in addition to five broad economic environments – Growth, Stagnation, Inflation, Recession and Chaos – […]
While geopolitical developments have always played a role in economies and markets, their scale and impact has been steadily rising since the 2008 financial crisis. Against a hostile trade backdrop, the global economy is losing momentum. Forecasts for world GDP growth this year have fallen to 3.2% from the 3.9% economists expected a year ago.1 […]
The pace of global growth continues to slow this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. The 1% decline in global growth over the past year in conjunction with the trade war and a number of geopolitical conflicts raises the risk of recession as the rules-based approach to governing international trade […]
The pace of global growth is slowing this year as policy uncertainty takes its toll on the world’s economy. Data points to the global economy expanding by 3.3% this year, slower than 2018’s 3.6% pace, with trade volumes declining and business sentiment deteriorating. 1 Central bank actions and intentions have boosted both equity and bond markets […]
Section 1: Q3 2019 Outlook The Danger of Politicizing the Central Bank As we enter the third quarter of 2019, we review recent global monetary policy and question how it has changed the traditional ways that we use it to detect risk in markets and the global economy. The global economy is expected to […]
Our outlook is focused on tension between politics, policy and the positioning of the corporate sector. The world economy remains vulnerable to the U.S – China power play. If tariffs persist or are ramped up further, already weak world trade volumes will struggle to gain traction. In addition, rising political conflict (Brexit and Italy) and […]
The global economy entered 2019 facing headwinds that included the ongoing uncertainty around the U.S. war on trade, a series of idiosyncratic events in the Euro area and the U.S. government shutdown. In April, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2019 to 3.3% from the previous level of 3.5% in its latest World Economic Outlook. This […]
The current global economic expansion is already one of the longest in the post-war period, beginning in the second quarter of 2009 and now almost a decade long. After three years of upgrades to global growth projections, the last three or four months have seen modest downgrades from organizations such as the IMF and the […]
Section 1. Q2 2019 Outlook Multiple Factors Raise the Prospect of Risk Asset Volatility As we look forward to the second quarter of 2019, we expect to experience greater volatility. Capital around the world moves to markets where it sees the greatest opportunity and to escape other relatively riskier international environments. The U.S. is […]
Progress on U.S./China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s more dovish rhetoric regarding further interest rate hikes have not convinced us to change our forward outlook that expects the U.S. economy to experience stagnation over the next twelve months. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with Brexit’s outcome uncertain, upcoming elections in the European Union, and the […]