Market volatility returned in September as China’s Evergrande debt crisis, the global prospect for higher taxes, U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty, and upcoming tapering by the Federal Reserve elevated risk. With these events considered, our outlook continues to expect the global recovery to continue. In September we maintained our twelve-month forward forecast of Growth (U.S. GDP […]
At the start of the year, inflation was widely expected to pick up as the base effects of a collapse in energy prices in the spring of 2020 began to show up in year-on-year inflation readings. The magnitude of the increase now appears to extend beyond those effects due to the ongoing rise in commodity […]
The COVID-19 pandemic appears to be less dramatic and lethal than some historic plagues and vaccinations will limit impact. Unfortunately, after substantial progress, the world faces a new enemy in the Delta variant. This highly contagious form of the virus devastated the subcontinent in spring and has now spread to almost 100 countries including the […]
Section 1: Q3 2021 Outlook Despite the robust underlying strength in the global economy, COVID remains a threat. With the Delta variant spreading more easily, it now looks likely that global infections this quarter will push well above the second-wave peak. The recent surge in infections in high vaccination rate countries is a surprise. […]
The macroeconomic environment was a key focus in May. Massive fiscal support has been the glue that has held the economy together but the re-opening contribution to growth is for the most part completed. The question of whether the change in consumer prices is transitory or a regime shift will determine the sustainability of economic […]
Economic activity has accelerated and is expected to remain strong into the third quarter of 2021, largely due to vaccination progress, economic re-opening, and large-scale fiscal stimulus. The U.S. is expected to be the principal driver of growth, followed closely by Europe as April restrictions are eased. While the demand side of the global economy […]
The tug-of-war between the virus and the global immunization effort intensified in March. The focus now will be on economic reopening. Every recession is different and the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, as has been the response from governments and central banks. Through large-scale fiscal transfers and central bank […]
Section 1: Q2 2021 Outlook Now Is an Opportune Time to Make an Allocation to Global Macro Strategies Global Macro is an investment style that is highly opportunistic and has the potential to generate strong risk-adjusted returns in challenging markets. Against a backdrop of the current pandemic, uncertainty, and potentially increased volatility, we felt […]
The macroeconomic outlook continues to improve, and the recovery may be faster than one that typically follows a business cycle recession, as vaccination rollouts accelerate, and the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package has been signed into law. This has prompted a surge in inflation expectations and commodity prices and a bond sell-off. The latest round of […]
The global economy has experienced a type of regime shift in response to the pandemic, and the recovery that follows will not be typical of historic recoveries following periods of recession and stagnation. Since the pandemic began, our outlook has been influenced by virus-related developments and fiscal stimulus, with consumer spending particularly sensitive to changes […]