Section 1: Q3 2021 Outlook Despite the robust underlying strength in the global economy, COVID remains a threat. With the Delta variant spreading more easily, it now looks likely that global infections this quarter will push well above the second-wave peak. The recent surge in infections in high vaccination rate countries is a surprise. […]
The macroeconomic environment was a key focus in May. Massive fiscal support has been the glue that has held the economy together but the re-opening contribution to growth is for the most part completed. The question of whether the change in consumer prices is transitory or a regime shift will determine the sustainability of economic […]
Economic activity has accelerated and is expected to remain strong into the third quarter of 2021, largely due to vaccination progress, economic re-opening, and large-scale fiscal stimulus. The U.S. is expected to be the principal driver of growth, followed closely by Europe as April restrictions are eased. While the demand side of the global economy […]
The tug-of-war between the virus and the global immunization effort intensified in March. The focus now will be on economic reopening. Every recession is different and the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, as has been the response from governments and central banks. Through large-scale fiscal transfers and central bank […]
Section 1: Q2 2021 Outlook Now Is an Opportune Time to Make an Allocation to Global Macro Strategies Global Macro is an investment style that is highly opportunistic and has the potential to generate strong risk-adjusted returns in challenging markets. Against a backdrop of the current pandemic, uncertainty, and potentially increased volatility, we felt […]
The macroeconomic outlook continues to improve, and the recovery may be faster than one that typically follows a business cycle recession, as vaccination rollouts accelerate, and the US$1.9 trillion stimulus package has been signed into law. This has prompted a surge in inflation expectations and commodity prices and a bond sell-off. The latest round of […]
The global economy has experienced a type of regime shift in response to the pandemic, and the recovery that follows will not be typical of historic recoveries following periods of recession and stagnation. Since the pandemic began, our outlook has been influenced by virus-related developments and fiscal stimulus, with consumer spending particularly sensitive to changes […]
The global economy remains dominated by the global pandemic. While the world was hoping to see a conclusion with the launch of vaccines as we entered 2021, rising COVID-19 cases and a more infectious new variant of the virus have created a renewed sense of caution. There have been over 94 million documented cases of […]
Section 1: Q1 2021 Outlook We Expect an Uneven Recovery and a Prolonged Global Recession While the world was hoping to see the conclusion of the global pandemic as we entered 2021, instead, we find ourselves more in the middle of the cycle. The pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession […]
COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year as governments shut down large segments of their economies to slow the spread of the virus. There are some signs of recovery as the latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for September showed that real […]