The economic recovery from the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic continues and multiple macro risks persist. Inflation due to supply shortages as well as fiscal spending, government debt, more hawkish central banks, and an uncertain labour market are afflicting developed economies around the world. The risk of a sharp slowdown in the coming months […]
The recent inflation surge is generating two challenges to the global expansion. The immediate one comes from a squeeze in household purchasing power, concentrated in Europe and low-income commodity importing nations. If growth stalls in the second half of the year, it will likely have negative repercussions for both growth and inflation. If growth proves […]
We have lowered our 2022 global GDP growth outlook following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, one month ago. A commodity supply shock has pushed up CPI inflation expectations and contributed to a shift in our expectations regarding the timing and size central bank rate hikes. Our outlook focuses on the reflationary consequences of strong […]
Geopolitical escalation in February has materially increased the risk of further aggravating the energy and commodity crisis developing over the past 2 years. After weeks of rising tensions, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24th. The U.S., in cooperation with its Western allies, has responded by imposing sanctions against Russia, prompting significant […]
The International Monetary Fund cut its world economic growth forecast for 2022 as the Covid-19 pandemic enters its third year, citing weaker prospects for the U.S. and China along with persistent inflation. Concerns over the stalled talks between Russia and NATO allies have added a layer of geopolitical risk to the heightened uncertainty. The IMF has […]
Section 1: Q1 2022 Outlook Global Consumer Prices are Approaching their Fastest Increase of the Past Quarter Century The COVID-19 pandemic has generated unprecedented macroeconomic volatility and its reverberations will be felt for some years to come. 2020’s lockdowns resulted in the largest drop in global GDP in modern history, which was followed by […]
One year after the launch of anti-Covid vaccines, financial markets have been willing to move beyond the pandemic while the economy has not. We see this with the disruptions among supply chains, particularity labor and commodity markets. The longest economic expansion in American history – 128 months – has been followed by the shortest recession […]
The demand recovery following 2020’s historic pandemic recession has been concentrated in goods and has pushed supply chains to their limits, extending delivery times to records and boosting prices and volatility in growth and inflation. Supply shortages are raising current inflation, while secular forces that alter the balance of supply and demand and sustain high […]
There has been mounting evidence that the pace of the global recovery has slowed. In many economies, it reflects increased consumer caution about high virus cases and shortages limiting how fast economies can grow. The shortage of semiconductors and the current logjam that is taking place at ports along the west coast of the U.S. […]
Market volatility returned in September as China’s Evergrande debt crisis, the global prospect for higher taxes, U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty, and upcoming tapering by the Federal Reserve elevated risk. With these events considered, our outlook continues to expect the global recovery to continue. In September we maintained our twelve-month forward forecast of Growth (U.S. GDP […]