Optimism surrounding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China and anticipation of the Fed’s recent rate cut propelled the U.S. stock market through the month, while Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks dampened the run. On November 12, 2025, U.S. President Trump signed a bill ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The 43-day […]
Sweeping tariffs across a wide-ranging group of trading partners threaten to hobble global growth and push up prices for consumers and businesses. The effective tariff rate in the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly a century. Households are reining in spending given the prospect for higher prices, while businesses are lowering […]
The U.S. President’s push to redesign the global economic order in favor of the U.S. is shaking a foundation of post-World War II supremacy: the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. That dominance helps the U.S. to run gaping budget deficits and enables U.S. consumers to spend more than they make—all funded by overseas […]
U.S. tariffs implemented this year were sold to the American public as being paid by foreign exporters, recharging U.S. manufacturing, and narrowing the size of U.S. trade and fiscal deficits. Early data suggests tariffs are not achieving those goals. U.S. Job growth has decelerated—including in the trade-sensitive manufacturing sector that was meant to benefit from […]
Changes in U.S. tariff policy have been dramatic and frequent. The U.S. will likely feel the greatest weight of the shock as the tariff costs begin to depress corporate earnings and raise consumer prices. U.S. data reflecting tariff impact has been unreliable as average tariff rate calculations have used trade flow data from the prior […]
Economic and trade policy uncertainties have led to reallocation of global capital, causing a weaker U.S. dollar, rising gold prices, and U.S. Treasury bond yields widening. Consumer confidence and business investment intentions have been affected by economic and trade policy uncertainty. This in turn has triggered a reallocation of global capital out of the U.S. […]
Earlier than expected U.S. trade agreements with China and the U.K. are trimming downside economic growth risks although the average U.S. tariff rate at above 13% remains the highest since the 1930s. Falling demand for the US dollar, stemming from geopolitical tensions, lack of trust in the US government’s ability to borrow, falling demand for […]
Recent market turbulence underscores a shifting global outlook as tariffs usher in a new economic era. On April 2nd, the U.S unveiled the most significant tariffs in almost a century, deepening a decline in U.S. stocks. By April 9th, as broad-based tariffs took effect, the U.S. 30-year bond yield surged amid a sell-off in the […]
For decades, Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia have trusted America’s “superpower stack”—defence treaties, trade deals, nuclear weapons, the dollar banking system—because it is mutually beneficial. The Trump overhaul of the global economy with sweeping tariffs has led to concern over inflation and growth. Now, global consumer spending has slowed outside of China due to the […]
U.S. trade policy represents a clear and significant risk to our macro-economic forecast. Open trade between Canada and the United States has benefitted both countries, increasing efficiency, spurring investment, boosting productivity, and raising standards of living. The imposition of tariffs will kick this into reverse. Tariffs on Canadian goods would lead to higher gas and […]