U.S. tariffs implemented this year were sold to the American public as being paid by foreign exporters, recharging U.S. manufacturing, and narrowing the size of U.S. trade and fiscal deficits. Early data suggests tariffs are not achieving those goals. U.S. Job growth has decelerated—including in the trade-sensitive manufacturing sector that was meant to benefit from […]
Changes in U.S. tariff policy have been dramatic and frequent. The U.S. will likely feel the greatest weight of the shock as the tariff costs begin to depress corporate earnings and raise consumer prices. U.S. data reflecting tariff impact has been unreliable as average tariff rate calculations have used trade flow data from the prior […]
Economic and trade policy uncertainties have led to reallocation of global capital, causing a weaker U.S. dollar, rising gold prices, and U.S. Treasury bond yields widening. Consumer confidence and business investment intentions have been affected by economic and trade policy uncertainty. This in turn has triggered a reallocation of global capital out of the U.S. […]
Earlier than expected U.S. trade agreements with China and the U.K. are trimming downside economic growth risks although the average U.S. tariff rate at above 13% remains the highest since the 1930s. Falling demand for the US dollar, stemming from geopolitical tensions, lack of trust in the US government’s ability to borrow, falling demand for […]
Recent market turbulence underscores a shifting global outlook as tariffs usher in a new economic era. On April 2nd, the U.S unveiled the most significant tariffs in almost a century, deepening a decline in U.S. stocks. By April 9th, as broad-based tariffs took effect, the U.S. 30-year bond yield surged amid a sell-off in the […]
For decades, Canada, Europe, and parts of Asia have trusted America’s “superpower stack”—defence treaties, trade deals, nuclear weapons, the dollar banking system—because it is mutually beneficial. The Trump overhaul of the global economy with sweeping tariffs has led to concern over inflation and growth. Now, global consumer spending has slowed outside of China due to the […]
U.S. trade policy represents a clear and significant risk to our macro-economic forecast. Open trade between Canada and the United States has benefitted both countries, increasing efficiency, spurring investment, boosting productivity, and raising standards of living. The imposition of tariffs will kick this into reverse. Tariffs on Canadian goods would lead to higher gas and […]
In delivering the first international speech of his second mandate by video from the White House at the World Economic Forum in Davos, United States President Donald Trump reiterated his tariff threats against Canada and the European Union while also warning other countries of potential tariffs if products are made outside of the U.S.1 The President […]
The U.S. is set to be the top performer among Group of Seven countries, according to International Monetary Fund projections, while world GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.1 Geopolitical tensions are weighing on the global economy while high public debt and defence budgets are crimping governments’ ability to spend. U.S. consumer […]
Trump’s re-election on November 5th poses a complex scenario for the U.S. and global markets. The prospect of an escalation of trade wars is likely to depress corporate investment while lowering real household disposable income, as tariffs are passed on to the consumer in the form of rising prices. It is anticipated that fiscal spending […]