Recent data suggest that the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter and payroll employment growth robust, while core inflation remained too high for comfort. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10th has further contributed to our view that […]
Current widespread growth increases the risks that a recession will take longer to materialize, require higher policy rates, and be deeper than was expected. Global downturns are amplified when synchronized. Central banks are approaching the final stage of their tightening cycles. It will take time to ascertain the magnitude of the inflation unwind. While there […]
2022 was a year characterized by geopolitical tensions, rate hikes, and inflation concerns across regions, with significant losses across asset classes. Oil prices surged in March as the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global oil trade flows, but prices reversed in the second half of the year as recession risks multiplied. The seeds for a 2023 recession […]
The global economy continues to slow as we near the end of 2022. The last time that the world experienced a central bank confluence of growth-restricting policies was in 1982, when a global recession was induced. There is good reason to expect the same in 2023. The weak points include China with Covid policies that […]
The global expansion has downshifted to a slower pace but remains resilient. We remain in the most aggressive and synchronized monetary tightening cycle in 40 years. Underlying inflation persists at multiple %age points above targets and central banks remain in tightening mode. In response to the U.S. CPI update for October, the 10-year-2-year yield spread […]
The Fed’s continuation of rate hikes in September to fight rising inflation, economic growth and geopolitical risk concerns, and a soaring US dollar combined to drive losses across all asset classes in Q3. During past inflationary environments, inflation came in waves. This time will be no different. As supply induced inflation begins to decline over […]
Despite sub-par global economy GDP growth this year, uncertainty around central bank policy paths continues to dominate markets. In September, Developed Markets continued to tighten, with their central banks (outside Japan) moving in unison with rate hikes, accompanied by guidance for further tightening ahead. This is a response to two closely related developments. First, central […]
On the heels of the pandemic, the world is now having to deal with spillovers from Russia’s war, which is threatening a recession not only in Europe but across the developed world, and China’s ad hoc lockdowns. Corresponding supply shocks are fueling inflation across the globe, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy further into […]
The World Bank and the OECD have slashed their global growth expectations, citing the surge in energy and food prices, along with disruptions from the Ukrainian war and ongoing pandemic restrictions in China.1 While businesses are grappling with labor shortages and surging wage growth, consumer demand remains strong, and the persistence of very high price […]
Escalating geopolitical tensions related to uncertainty around the war in Ukraine and prolonged supply chain disruptions have shifted stagflation concerns towards recession, as the first quarter of 2022 in in U.S. experienced negative growth. The emergence of highly transmissible COVID-19 variants also continues to risk derailing the global economic recovery. Central banks are weighing aggressive […]