The global outlook will be shaped largely by fiscal and monetary choices, the intensity of geoeconomic fragmentation forces, and the ability of governments to implement long-overdue structural reforms. Notable revisions have taken place at the International Monetary Fund, with upgrades to the forecast for the United States offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies, […]
The world is changing rapidly and in ways that can be hard to predict. The frequency of unexpected political and economic shocks has accelerated. Heightened geopolitical risks favour assets that are considered safe havens such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, Treasuries, and gold. The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. In September we […]
Global economies are experiencing synchronised stimulus. In June the European Central Bank reduced rates for the first time since before the Covid-19 pandemic. In July policymakers at the Bank of England voted to cut rates. Other central banks, ranging from those in Canada and Chile to Denmark, are also in on the action with the […]
The FOMC met on June 11th, holding interest rates unchanged and maintaining the 2024 outlook of a 4.0% unemployment rate while expecting inflation to decline to 2.6% at year-end 2024 and to be 2.3% at year-end 2025. The U.S. market has continued to support a delaying Fed, as the economy and profits continue to grow, […]
Global economic momentum continues to improve with mixed results among the G7. The U.S. FOMC met in early June, focusing on inflation that has remained higher than target, supporting the position to leave rates unchanged. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, however, began rate-cut cycles in June; the first G7 central banks to […]
The global economy has avoided a recession in the face of supply-chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic, a Russian-initiated war on Ukraine that triggered a global energy and food crisis, and a surge in inflation, followed by a globally synchronized monetary policy tightening. It remains resilient, with growth holding steady as inflation returns […]
Markets anticipate easing policies from major central banks starting in June, driven by ongoing inflation normalization and a shift toward recession prevention. For Canada, we look for a first cut in June compared to the first expected move from the Fed in December as higher interest rates are having a large impact on the Canadian […]
As anticipated, the FOMC voted in March to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. This was the fifth consecutive stand pat decision, all of which have been unanimous. Broadening global economic activity should help broaden investment performance, which has been narrowly concentrated in U.S. mega-cap equities. Bull […]
Global fourth-quarter data has provided evidence that the recovery remains on solid footing, pointing to continued, but slower growth in the first three months of 2024. In the U.S., layoffs remain low, and job growth has held steady. Cooling inflation has meant that wages are now rising faster than prices. In January we maintained our […]
Despite some bumps along the way, the global economy proved resilient in 2023. Alongside an economic deceleration, we expect inflation to cool sufficiently for central banks to begin cutting rates, helping to avert a contraction in the economy. While the Fed’s goal is to pull off a soft landing, the odds are against it. Historically, […]