Despite some bumps along the way, the global economy proved resilient in 2023. Alongside an economic deceleration, we expect inflation to cool sufficiently for central banks to begin cutting rates, helping to avert a contraction in the economy. While the Fed’s goal is to pull off a soft landing, the odds are against it. Historically, the Fed has managed a soft landing only twice following nine tightening cycles over the past five decades. The other seven ended in a recession. In December we maintained our U.S. twelve -month forward looking outlook to reflect our view for Stagnation over the entire period.

China’s consumer prices fell by 0.5% in November 2023.¹ China’s trade surplus increased to USD 68.39 billion in November 2023 from USD 66.49 billion in the same period the previous year. The trade surplus with the United States narrowed, with exports falling 5.2% while imports shrank 6.0%.² The Eurozone economy contracted by 0.1% during the third quarter of 2023. Among the bloc’s largest economies, there were contractions in Germany (-0.1%), France (-0.1%), and the Netherlands (-0.2%), while both Spain and Italy expanded by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.³ Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in November 2023, down from 2.9% in October 2023.⁴ The Euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.5% in October 2023, unchanged from the prior month.⁵ 

The U.S. economy expanded an annualized 5.2% in Q3 2023. Exports soared 6% and imports increased 5.2%.⁶ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed to 3.1%. Energy costs dropped 5.4%.⁷ The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 3.7% in November of 2023 from 3.9% in the previous month.⁸ The U.S. trade gap widened slightly to $64.3 billion in October 2023. Total exports went down 1%. Meanwhile, imports edged up a meager 0.2%.⁹ The Canadian GDP contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2023, underscoring that higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada are being transmitted to a greater extent to the Canadian economy, backtracking from robust growth earlier in the year.¹⁰ The annual inflation rate in Canada was at 3.1% in November of 2023. Elevated inflation was attributed to higher mortgage interest costs (29.8%) amid the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle, although shelter prices as a whole decelerated in October.¹¹ The unemployment rate in Canada rose to 5.8% in November 2023.¹² Canada recorded a trade surplus of CAD 2.97 billion in October 2023, from the downwardly revised CAD 1.12 billion in the previous month.¹³

Optimism returned to the market with a vengeance in November, as cooling inflation readings raised expectations for future Fed rate cuts, boosting U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 up 9.1% in November. The pullback in Treasury yields provided relief for smaller caps, who tend to be more sensitive to borrowing costs, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 up 8.5% and 8.3%, respectively. Canadian equities finished the month on the upside. The S&P/TSX Composite and S&P/TSX 60 rose 7.5% and 7.9%, respectively. The S&P/TSX Composite Diversified Banks was up 8.6%. The S&P Europe 350 soared 6.5% in November and turned positive for Q4. 15 of 16 countries contributed positively to pan-European equity returns this month, with Norway the only exception. Germany and France did the heaviest lifting, contributing 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively, to the S&P Europe 350’s return in November. The S&P Pan Asia BMI rose 7.9%, with every country, factor, and sector contributing positively. Korea led the pack with the S&P Korea BMI posting an 10.7% gain over the month, while China and Hong Kong were among the laggards. Japan’s larger market contributed the most to November’s gains.

In December we maintained the asset allocation from November. We continue to hold gold across all models. Gold is considered a long-term strategic asset alongside bonds as it provides returns in a wide range of economic conditions. In 2023, two significant event risks – the SVB failure and the Israel-Hamas conflict – added between 3% and 6% to gold’s performance.¹⁴ The diversification and risk reduction advantages of fixed income relative to equities will continue to benefit our portfolio models during stagnation. With a soft landing, bond prices may not appreciate much beyond their 2023 year-end range.

Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China CPI. December 9, 2023.

² Trading Economics. China Trade. December 7, 2023.

³ Trading Economics. EU GDP. December 7, 2023.

⁴ Trading Economics. EU CPI. December 19, 2023.

⁵ Trading Economics. EU Unemployment. November 30, 2023.

⁶ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. November 29, 2023.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. CPI. December 12, 2023.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. December 8, 2023.

⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. December 6, 2023.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. Canada GDP. November 30, 2023.

¹¹ Trading Economics. Canada CPI. December 19, 2023.

¹² Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. December 1, 2023.

¹³ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. December 6, 2023.

¹⁴ World Gold Council. Gold Outlook 2024. December 2023.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. November 30, 2023. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

The U.S. federal government is behind a reindustrialization drive while China’s economy is sputtering and Japan is fueling growth, all while the world taps the brakes on a decades-long era of globalization. This evolution in global trade and economic policy has created a heightened sense of uncertainty over the outlook. Uncertainty about the impact of rising yields is causing central bankers to remain on hold while signaling they remain biased to hike. This bias is likely to be greatest for the Fed where growth remains strong. In October, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook for the U.S. economy of six months of Stagnation, followed by three months of Recession and then, three months of Stagnation.

The Chinese economy expanded by 4.9% year over year in Q3 2023, as sustained stimulus from Beijing offset the impact of a prolonged property crisis and weak trade.¹ China’s trade surplus in September 2023 narrowed to USD 77.71 billion from USD 82.67 billion in the same period the previous year as both exports and imports declined.² The inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 4.3% year-on-year in September 2023, down from August’s 5.2%. Energy costs declined further (-4.6% vs -3.3%).³ The Euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in August 2023, the lowest on record. The lowest jobless rate was recorded in Germany (3%), while the highest rates were observed in Spain (11.5%), Italy (7.3%), and France (7.3%).⁴

The U.S. trade gap narrowed to $58.3 billion in August 2023. Exports rose 1.6%, led by crude oil. Imports declined 0.7%.⁵ The U.S. inflation rate remained steady at 3.7% in September.⁶ The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in September.⁷ The annual inflation rate in Canada declined to 3.8% in September. The result further strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada will refrain from further rate hikes in the current cycle.⁸ The unemployment rate remained unchanged for the third consecutive period at 5.5% in August.⁹ 

As the U.S. ten-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, the U.S. market rally fizzled, with the S&P 500 down 3.3% in Q3. The S&P Small Cap 600 underperformed, down 4.9%.  Canadian equities finished the month on the downside. The S&P/TSX Composite posted a decline of 3.3%. The S&P Europe 350 ended Q3 slipping 1.5% in September. Just 4 of 16 countries contributed positively with the U.K. the brightest spot, contributing 0.4%, followed by Sweden with 0.1%. Among the detractors, France was the most prominent, subtracting 0.5% from the S&P Europe 350’s return in September. The S&P Pan Asia BMI slipped 2.3% in September and ended the third quarter with a 1.8% loss. 11 of 14 S&P Pan Asia BMI regions ended September in the red, with India contributing 0.2% to the regional benchmark’s return. At the other side of the ledger, Japan was the largest detractor with -0.7%.

In October, we maintained exposure to all asset classes, reflecting the prolonged interest rate tightening cycle and the impact that it is having on the economy. We continue to maintain gold exposure across all models. The expectation of a slowdown is a scenario in which gold has historically performed well. Gold is considered a long-term strategic asset alongside bonds as it provides returns in a wide range of economic conditions.

The forces driving change across the global economy create grounds for the emergence of new and sudden risks to financial markets as fiscal stimulus is reined in, credit provisions contract, and asset prices are constrained by higher real yields. The confluence of these factors should allow the FOMC to begin lowering policy rates in the second half of 2024. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

Drew Millard, Portfolio Manager

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. October 18, 2023.

² Trading Economics. China Trade. October 13, 2023.

³ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. October 18, 2023.

⁴ Trading Economics. EU Unemployment. October 2, 2023.

⁵ Trading Economics. U.S. Trade. October 5, 2023.

⁶ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. October 12, 2023.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. October 6, 2023.

⁸ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. October 17, 2023.

⁹ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. October 6, 2023.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. September 30, 2023. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

The global expansion underway continues to show resilience to synchronised monetary tightening.  The dynamics of higher rates put constraints on demand and credit availability, undermining business sector health and expansion, resulting in downturns that are more globally synchronized, with higher terminal policy rates, leading to global recession. Evidence of moderation in global inflation such as the deterioration in the developed market purchasing manager indices (PMI) suggests that higher interest rates are slowly beginning to take their toll on economic activity. Weakness now appears to be spreading to the services side of the economy as tailwinds from pent-up services demand moderate and the headwind from aggressive tightening intensifies. While inflation may come down from the highs of 2022, it is expected to stay above 2% and more likely 3% over the next decade. Among the likely sources of price pressure are the end of the China-led low-cost labour boom, the reversal of globalisation, the expanded role of fiscal spending that began during the pandemic, and underinvestment in commodity supplies in recent years. We continue to anticipate a mild contraction in the U.S. in late 2023 and slow growth in other developed markets. In August, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook for the U.S. economy of six months of Stagnation, followed by three months of Recession and then three months of Stagnation.

The Chinese economy expanded by 6.3% year-on-year in Q2 2023, showing faster growth compared to the 4.5% recorded in Q1.¹ China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate inched up to 5.3% in July 2023.² China’s trade surplus plunged to USD 80.6 billion in July 2023 from USD 102.7 billion in the same period a year earlier, as exports fell more than imports. The trade surplus with the U.S. widened to USD 30.3 billion in July from USD 28.72 billion in June.³ The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 5.3% in July 2023.⁴ The Euro Area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was at a record low of 6.4% in June. Amongst the largest Euro Area economies, the lowest jobless rate was recorded in Germany (3%), while the highest rates were registered in Spain (11.7%).⁵ The Eurozone posted a trade surplus in June. Among major trade partners, imports declined mainly from Russia, China, the U.K., and the U.S.⁶

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023.⁷ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. accelerated to 3.2% in July compared to the year earlier inflation peak of 9.1%.⁸ The annual inflation rate in Canada rose to 3.3% in July. The mortgage interest cost index (+30.6%) posted another record year-over-year gain and remained the largest contributor to headline inflation.⁹ The unemployment rate in Canada edged higher to 5.5% in July. A net 6,400 jobs were removed from the Canadian economy, surprising markets that expected a 21,100 gain.¹⁰ 

Extreme optimism towards stock markets throughout 2023 has given way to growing skepticism in August. Global government bond yields extended their upward climb as resilient economic data challenged the view that central banks rates are peaking. Treasuries have been a key driver of the global debt selloff. The U.S. market rally gained steam in July, with the S&P 500 up 3.2%. The breadth of the market continued to widen as a result of small-cap momentum, with the S&P SmallCap 600 up 5.5% vs 4.1% for Mid-Caps. Commodities outperformed U.S. equities, with the S&P GSCI posting a stellar gain of 11%, boosted by Energy and Industrial Metals. The S&P/TSX Composite posted an increase of 2.6%. The S&P Europe 350 extended its year-to-date gains by 2.1% in July to 14.2%. Thirteen of sixteen countries contributed positively to pan-European equity returns. The U.K. was the brightest spot, contributing +0.6%, followed by Switzerland and Germany with 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. The S&P Pan Asia BMI soared 4.9% in July, extending its YTD gain to 11.5%. All S&P Pan Asia BMI regions ended July in the black, with China the largest contributor to the regional benchmark’s return with 1.7%.

In August, we maintained exposure to all asset classes, reflecting the prolonged interest rate tightening cycle and the impact that it is having on the economy. Our view remains that a U.S. recession will occur. We continue to maintain gold exposure across all models as we expect gold to remain supported on the back of rangebound bond yields and a weaker dollar.

We anticipate that economic deterioration will drive an increase in defaults and other unintended consequences following tighter credit conditions. Long-term trends will keep production capacity constrained in the new regime of higher macro and market volatility. Historically, such periods have resulted in higher volatility, significant stock market pullbacks, and an overall appetite for high quality, liquid assets such as gold. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. July 17, 2023.

² Trading Economics. China Unemployment. August 15, 2023.

³ Trading Economics. China Trade. August 8, 2023.

⁴ Trading Economics. E.U. Inflation. August 18, 2023.

⁵ Trading Economics. Europe Unemployment. August 1, 2023.

⁶ Trading Economics. Europe Trade. August 17, 2023.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. July 27, 2023.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. August 10, 2023.

⁹ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. August 15, 2023.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. August 4, 2023.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. July 31, 2023. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

Globally, central banks currently face a trade-off between persisting with their pace of tightening cycles until inflation is back down to more manageable levels and triggering further distress in the financial sector. There have been some reductions in headline rates of inflation due to monetary tightening, a stabilization of commodity markets, and an easing of supply-chain conditions. Our outlook remains that these trade-offs combine to tip the U.S. into recession by year-end. In June, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook for the U.S. economy of six months of Stagnation, followed by three months of Recession and then three months of Stagnation.

Buoyant global economic activity is expected in Asia, with China’s reopening projected to boost activity across the continent. China exports were off to a slow start in May, declining 7.5% year over year to a three-month low. Exports to the U.S. plunged by 18.2% from a year earlier, while those to the EU declined by 26.6%. Shipments to Russia increased by 114%, largely due to energy.¹ 

The Eurozone economy shrank 0.1% in the first three months of 2023, putting the eurozone into a technical recession. Among the bloc’s biggest economies, GDP contracted in Germany (-0.3%) and the Netherlands (-0.7%) while expansion was recorded for France (0.2%), Italy (0.6%), and Spain (0.5%).² The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area fell to 6.1% in May 2023.³ The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Euro Area edged down to 6.5% in April 2023.⁴

The Senate passed a bill to suspend America’s debt ceiling until January 2025, allowing the government to resume borrowing money and avoid an imminent sovereign default. The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 1.3% on quarter in Q1 2023, slightly higher than 1.1% in the advance estimate.⁵ The consumer price inflation in the United States declined to 4.0% in May 2023.⁶ The unemployment rate in the U.S. increased to 3.7 % in May 2023, the highest since October 2022.⁷ The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023 which included Labour Day holiday, the highest figure since October 2021.⁸

The Canadian economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023. Exports of goods and services advanced by 2.4%. Imports edged up at a slower 0.2% on an annualized basis, and GDP expanded by 3.1%.⁹ The Bank of Canada unexpectedly raised the target for its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in June 2023, after pausing the tightening campaign in the previous two meetings. Borrowing costs are now at high levels not seen in 22 years.¹⁰ Canada posted a trade surplus of CAD 1.94 billion in April of 2023, supported by a 46% surge in sales of gold as higher quantities coincided with the upswing in bullion prices for the period.¹¹

Investors struggled in May to anticipate the Fed’s rate hike trajectory and the outcome of the federal debt ceiling debates. The S&P 500 posted a gain of 0.4%, outpacing smaller caps, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 down 3.2% and the S&P Small Cap 600 down 1.8%. Canadian equities finished the month down 5.0%. The S&P Europe 350 shed 2.3% in May, erasing its Q2 gains. 14 of 16 countries detracted from pan-European equity returns, with the U.K. and France the largest detractors, with contributions of -0.8% and -0.7%, respectively. 10 of 14 S&P Pan Asia BMI regions ended May in the red, with China the largest detractor from the regional benchmark with a contribution of -1.5%.

In June, we maintained our asset allocation from May, including the presence of a gold position across all models. Following a historical high level of central bank gold buying, the 2023 World Gold Council survey revealed that 24% of central banks intend to increase their holding reserves in the next 12 months. We continue to maintain short duration exposure to fixed income and a greater exposure to Canadian equities over U.S. equities as we anticipate a continuing weaker underlying economy through the remainder of 2023.

Looking forward, we are monitoring global concerns over the resilience of supply chains. The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and the Build America, Buy America Act have included provisions that are explicitly designed to favor goods and services produced in the U.S. or in North America. Protectionist provisions distort trade and investment risk, fragmenting global supply chains and triggering retaliatory actions by trading partners. These “Made in America” policies are bad for U.S. growth, productivity, and labor market outcomes. We also are monitoring signs of strain in commercial property markets, with global transaction volumes down by 17% over the past year and the value of U.S.-listed real-estate investment trusts (REITS) down by between 14% and 20% year on year in the first quarter of 2023.¹² In the U.S., vulnerabilities in the commercial property sector risk creating a doom loop with the banking sector, with around three-quarters of U.S. commercial property lending coming from smaller banks.  A slump in commercial property values risks causing a spike in bad loans, and could have a cascading impact in parts of the U.S. banking system.

We are positioned for a recession in the U.S. in the third quarter. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

¹ Trading Economics. China Trade. June 6, 2023.

² Trading Economics. EU GDP. June 8, 2023.

³ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. June 1, 2023.

⁴ Trading Economics. EU Unemployment. June 1, 2023.

⁵ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. May 25, 2023.

⁶ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. June 13, 2023.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. June 2, 2023.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. June 8, 2023.

⁹ Trading Economics. Canada GDP. May 31, 2023.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. Canada Interest Rates. June 7, 2021.

¹¹ Trading Economics. Canada Trade. June 7, 2023.

¹² International Monetary Fund. U.S. Report. June 2023.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. May 31, 2023. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.

Against a backdrop of rate hikes and jitters in the banking sector, the effects of tighter monetary policy remain the focus of our outlook for the remainder of 2023.The IMF has expressed concern about a global economy that is experiencing a gradual recovery that remains fragile, and it was noted that downside risks dominate in the April World Economic Outlook. Weaker than anticipated first quarter U.S. GDP is evidence that the recovery has a long way to go. In April, we maintained our twelve-month forward outlook for the U.S. economy, reflecting our expectation that the U.S. will fall into recession in the third quarter of 2023. Our Outlook remains six months of Stagnation, followed by three months of Recession and then three months of Stagnation.

The Chinese economy advanced 4.5% year over year in Q1 of 2023, accelerating from a 2.9% growth in Q4. A complex global environment and insufficient domestic demand indicate that the country’s recovery is not yet solid.¹ China’s trade surplus widened in March 2023 from the same period a year earlier due to greater trade with developed countries although the trade surplus with the United States narrowed in March.² China’s March consumer prices declined 0.3% from a month earlier.³ China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate declined to a seven-month low of 5.3% from February’s three-month high of 5.6%.⁴ The Eurozone posted their first trade surplus since September 2021 as exports climbed 7.6%, boosted by sales of manufactured goods and exports of fuels and food. Among major trade partners, exports increased to the U.K. (10.4%), Switzerland (10.4%), Norway (14%), the U.S. (10.9%), China (5.8%), and Turkey (27.6%), but declined sharply to Russia (-50.5%). Purchases rose from the U.K. (15.1%), the U.S. (5.9%), Turkey (8.4%), and Norway (3.5%), but were sharply down from Russia (-77.3%), Switzerland (-13.8%), and China (-4.3%).⁵ The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area was confirmed at 6.9% in March.⁶

The U.S. economy grew by an annualized 1.1% in Q1 2023, slowing from a 2.6% expansion in the previous three-month period, as rising interest rates continued to hurt the housing market and businesses reduced inventories.⁷ The annual inflation rate in the U.S. slowed for a ninth consecutive period to 5% in March. Food prices grew at a slower rate and energy cost fell.⁸ The unemployment rate in the United States edged down to 3.5% in March.⁹ The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 4.3% in March, amid significant base-year effects for energy costs. The CPI also decelerated for food, due to lower prices for fruits and fresh vegetables.¹⁰ The unemployment rate in Canada was at 5% for a fourth consecutive month in March.¹¹

Market volatility in the first quarter was characterized by turbulent swings in inflation and rate hike expectations, accompanied by shock waves from the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. Boosted by Information Technology, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 7.5% in Q1, outpacing smaller caps, with the S&P Mid Cap 400 up 3.8% and the S&P SmallCap 600 up 2.6%. U.S. fixed income index performances were positive for the quarter, largely due to a decline across the Treasury yield curve in March. The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite rose 4.6% for the quarter, with Information Technology up 26.5%, while Energy was the worst performer, down 2.3%. The S&P Europe 350 ended the quarter up 8.7%. Fourteen of sixteen countries contributed positively to European equity returns in Q1. The S&P Pan Asia BMI extended its year-to-date gains in March, rising 2.8% to end the quarter up 4.5%. Nine of 14 S&P Pan Asia BMI regions contributed positively to the benchmark’s Q1 returns, with Japan’s contribution the most pronounced at +2.0%, followed by Taiwan with +1.2%.

In April, we maintained our asset allocation from March, including the presence of gold and the twenty percent cash position across all models. We continue to maintain short duration exposure to fixed income and a greater exposure to Canadian equities over U.S. equities as we anticipate the reporting of weaker first quarter earnings and a continuing weaker underlying economy through the remainder of 2023.

We are currently positioned for a recession in the U.S. in the third quarter. Our approach to portfolio management is nimble, opportunistic, and deliberate in identifying asset classes that are best placed to generate returns in a new world order. Our focus is on protecting portfolios from downside risk, and we believe that our investment process is working to achieve that goal.

Deborah Frame, President and CIO

¹ Trading Economics. China GDP. April 18, 2023.

² Trading Economics. China Trade. April 13, 2023.

³ Trading Economics. China Inflation. April 11, 2023.

⁴ Trading Economics. China Unemployment. April 18, 2023.

⁵ Trading Economics. EU Trade. April 20, 2023.

⁶ Trading Economics. EU Inflation. April 19, 2023.

⁷ Trading Economics. U.S. GDP. April 27, 2023.

⁸ Trading Economics. U.S. Inflation. April 12, 2023.

⁹ Trading Economics. U.S. Unemployment. April 7, 2023.

¹⁰ Trading Economics. Canada Inflation. April 18, 2023.

¹¹ Trading Economics. Canada Unemployment. April 6, 2023.

Index return data from Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices Index Dashboard: U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Fixed Income. March 31, 2023. Index performance is based on total returns and expressed in the local currency of the index.