Market Priced Volatility and Real-World Uncertainty Economic expansion in advanced economies is expected to continue into next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. The U.S. Fed is expected to continue slowly unwinding QE while raising rates, and the ECB is likely to begin to taper its asset purchases during 2018. Prospects for […]
In September, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The global economy continues to chug along with the July IMF forecast for global economic growth of 3.5% for 2017 and 3.6% for 2018 looking attainable¹. All 46 countries monitored by the OECD are on a growth track this year for the […]
In August, we continued with our Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. This outlook is centered on the United States. The pickup in global growth remains on track, a departure from years past when estimates slid lower as the year progressed. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global output to grow by 3.5% in […]
In July, we continued with our global Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Economic Outlook continues as expected with global output projected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.1 At the country level, growth projections are lower for the United States, assuming fiscal policy […]
The Outlook for Interest Rates, the Economy and Inflation in the U.S. and Among the Other Major World Economies The U.S. Fed will probably start shrinking its balance sheet in September and the ECB is likely to taper its asset purchases in the first half of 2018. What is the outlook for interest rates, the […]
In June, we continued with our global Stagnation Outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Although growth was lower than expected in Q1 in several G7 economies, a slow expansion is now well established across the board. That said, some of these economies have made a much better recovery from the crisis than others. The European […]
In May, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. The outlook for the world economy is improving and world trade has picked up. Manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are improving and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. The recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum after being […]
In April, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. After a lackluster showing in 2016, economic activity in emerging and developing economies is projected by the International Monetary Fund to pick up the pace in 2017 and 2018. There is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes, however. Persistent structural problems […]
When does inflation begin to change investment decisions? During the first quarter of 2017 we removed U.S. inflation from our outlook and reverted to Stagnation for all global economies for the twelve-month forward forecast. Looking to the future, our analysis suggests that ongoing monetary accommodation is unlikely to have significant inflationary consequences, if inflation expectations […]
In March, we continued with our global Stagnation outlook for the twelve-month forward period. Expectations for the world economy in 2017 are relatively unchanged from last month. The U.S. economy is expected to stagnate as Trump fiscal stimulus is not expected until 2018. Political clouds on the horizon include the first round of the French […]