The global economy has displayed impressive resilience in the face of aggressive monetary tightening with GDP rising 2.9% over the past four quarters.1 Domestic output gaps are expected to be far more important in determining inflation in a particular economy than has been seen over the past 20 years of globalization. The result will be […]
In June we carried the outlook forward from May with Growth in the first half of the twelve-month time horizon heading toward Inflation in the back half. World trade weakened slightly in Q1 2018 to 4.4% compared to 4.7% in 2017¹. The global economy was handed a curve ball in May as the U.S. unilaterally […]
In May, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. The global economy is running at its fastest pace since the very early days of the current economic recovery. The IMF upgraded its outlook for 2018 and 2019, calling for the world economy to achieve […]
In April we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Global momentum remains strong as the IMF forecasts 3.9% growth this year and next, the fastest since 2011 thanks to increasing investment and trade. The strength of global demand is leading to a significant increase […]
In March, we continued our Growth Outlook for the next six months followed by Inflation for the following six months. Fundamentals (job growth, corporate profits, corporate and consumer confidence) remain very strong globally for now even as manufacturing downshifts. The commitment by President Trump to impose tariffs on China would be the main driver of […]
In February, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. The data coming in from 2017 confirms that the synchronized world economic recovery also contributed to global EPS growth across most markets in 2017. China continues to grow but a slowdown is underway, resulting from policy tightening as the authorities became more concerned […]
In January, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months. Global growth has become more trend line in 2018, led by global demand and a revival in commodity prices, allowing most policymakers the flexibility to pursue much-needed reforms without stifling growth. A few developed market central banks are facing conflicting signals as economic […]
In December, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting to Stagnation for the following nine months as we see the initial impact of U.S. tax reform on consumer and business behavior contributing to short-term U.S. growth. Global growth is expected to return to its trend rate of 3.7% in 2018 as […]
In November, we continued our Growth outlook for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. Synchronous global growth is expected to remain in place for 2017. Contributions to this growth include inflation standing below most central banks’ 2% objective, G3 capital goods orders climbing at the fastest pace since […]
In October, we changed our outlook to Growth for the next three months, reverting back to Stagnation for the following nine months. The economic expansion in advanced economies seems set to continue for the next year, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching full employment, inflation has remained below […]